ISW Explains Why Putin Removed Shoigu

The Kremlin chief is preparing for a protracted war.

Putin has replaced Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov as Russian Defence Minister, moving the general to replace Nikolai Patrushev as secretary of the Security Council. The personnel reshuffle following the "presidential election" indicates that he is taking significant steps to mobilise the country's economy and defence industrial base to support a protracted war against Ukraine.

It is also possible that the Russian dictator is preparing Russia for a future confrontation with NATO, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggested. Analysts pointed to the Kremlin leader's long-standing "tactic" of removing top officials by giving them secondary roles rather than simply firing them.

For example, the Russian Council published a list of ministers on May 12, according to which Putin "proposed" (his proposals are orders) politician and scholar Belousov to be the new defence ministry chief.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told state-run Russian media that Shoigu, who has served as Russia's defence minister since 2012, will now become secretary of the Security Council and will be Putin's deputy on Russia's Military-Industrial Commission. He also said that the Kremlin leader had "dismissed" Patrushev from this post "in connection with moving him to another job." Peskov did not specify information about the latter, but assured that the Kremlin would announce his new role in the "near future." In addition, Putin's spokesman said that Army General Valery Gerasimov (who is commander-in-chief of Russia's occupation forces in Ukraine) will remain the chief of the general staff, and no change of this position is currently being considered.

"Shoigu's replacement of Patrushev as secretary of the Security Council is in line with Putin's general scheme of quietly removing high-ranking security officials by giving them secondary roles in Russian security rather than simply dismissing them," ISW stressed.

It noted that the agency is a deliberative body in Russia that also plays a role in implementing security policy and developing Russia's strategic culture. Therefore, Shoigu's appointment there makes his actual downgrading from the prestigious post of defence minister less humiliating.

"Putin has removed Shoigu from the direct command chain of the defence ministry, but given him further influence in the security sphere. Shoigu remains an important and loyal subordinate, and sometimes a scapegoat, and Putin is likely to benefit from retaining his leadership and experience in some official position," the analysts concluded.

They drew attention to the telling fact that Shoigu's dismissal followed two high-profile incidents: the firing of his ally, Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov, on corruption charges, and Putin's meeting with the general's political adversary, Tula Region Governor Alexei Dyumin, to discuss updates to the to the Russian Interior Ministry's Operations and Search Directorate. These moments, ISW suggests, were key indicators of Kremlin policy in preparing to remove Shoigu from his longtime post.