Political Scientist: The Russian Elite Is Frozen With Fear Of Who'll Be Next

The list of persons involved in the ICC warrants will be expanded.

Arrest warrants have been issued against the former head of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Sergei Shoigu, and the head of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov. The International Criminal Court suspects them of war crimes.

What is the practical side of this issue? Will this somehow affect the mood in the ranks of the Russian military command?

Charter97.org spoke about this with the famous Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of the Penta Center of Applied Political Studies:

— The International Criminal Court has sent a very clear signal that can affect the mood of the Russian elites first of all.

The first warrant was issued for the illegal transportation of children from Ukraine against Putin and the Ombudsman Maria Lvova-Belova. Many believed that this was a purely symbolic decision, but Putin is reacting to it. He's clearly afraid. This is the kind of political and legal stigma that the ICC has placed on such an influential leader for the first time in history.

Still, earlier it concerned the odious leaders of the developing countries. Let me remind you that the trials were against figures who participated in the war in the territory of the former Yugoslavia, and here we are talking about the leader of a country with nuclear weapons. This is the first such precedent that everyone takes into account.

Even when the topic of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia was discussed at the recent Global Peace Summit, they say, to invite — not to invite the Russian Federation, then the question immediately arose, what about the ICC warrant? The same is true with Putin's participation in the G20 summit. It is still unclear whether Putin will go to Brazil or not. That's the effect.

The movement of these people around the world is limited. They (even in such a preliminary legal order) were found responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity — already a very significant step.

Of course, this will not affect all Russian military, but the elites, high-ranking military leaders, some political leaders will think about it. They're all frozen with fear and waiting to see who's next.

Moreover, Ukraine, with the assistance of the ICC, maintains a register of war crimes. Some people carried out strikes against Ukraine killing civilians.

It is important to remember the precedent of punishment for crimes during the Yugoslav war. Not immediately, after a while, but they were punished: the former president of Serbia, and many others.

I'm sure it will continue. And not only by ICC. I think that Ukraine will hold its tribunals with the assistance of international institutions to punish Russian war criminals who committed atrocities in Ukraine. The topic of the international tribunal remains open.

One of the points of President Zelensky's peace formula is justice. Punishment for Russian war criminals. I think that it is only a matter of time when there will be appropriate verdicts. It's inevitable.

This is a danger that will hang over the very influential current leaders of Russia. The list of persons involved in the ICC warrants will be expanded. Now just the most significant figures come first. I emphasize that this is a signal to the Russian elites.

The international wanted list will work at least in Western countries.

— Why is there still no arrest warrant against Lukashenka, although he is involved in the removal of children from Ukraine, like Putin. Will they issue the warrant?

— I would recommend a different strategy to the Belarusian opposition. After all, the ICC deals with war crimes, genocide, large-scale crimes related to violations of international law. Therefore, in the case of Putin, Gerasimov and Shoigu, this works.

When it comes to crimes within the country, the situation is slightly different. But there is a precedent for Pinochet, as well as representatives of the Argentine military junta. As a result, they were punished in Argentina. Nevertheless.

After Pinochet had already left power, he was very old, he came to Spain, where he was arrested on a lawsuit filed by Chilean opposition activists. This was due to Pinochet's crimes when he headed the military junta in Chile.

I believe that the strategy of legal prosecution of Lukashenka can be a separate area of activity of the Belarusian opposition. Lawyers familiar with the legislation of those countries where Lukashenka at least sometimes comes should work.

In some countries, for example, there is a British jurisdiction. Here you need to think through a strategy, where and how you can act against the dictator.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com