Foreign Affairs: Putin Targets Two Western Countries

They have a large Russian population.

For the Russian president, the war in Ukraine is like a front in a conflict with the West. As a result, Moscow will target NATO countries, in particular, Estonia or Latvia may come under attack. This was reported by Foreign Affairs.

“For Putin, the war in Ukraine is not only — or even mainly — about Ukraine,” the report says.

According to people close to Putin, for him, the invasion of Ukraine is like one front in a conflict with the West. For the head of the Kremlin, success on the battlefield may not be enough. To defeat the “real enemies” in Brussels and Washington, he may feel that he needs to attack a NATO member.

Russian elites believe that the most likely targets could be Estonia and Latvia, because these Baltic countries have a large Russian population.

The media reported that Moscow could follow a “familiar game,” where FSB officers first force Russian-speaking residents of one of the two countries to declare oppression by the “neo-Nazi government” and the need for help from the Kremlin. In response, the Russian Armed Forces would cross the border and take control of municipalities in the eastern part of either country. In particular, the Estonian city of Narva, where the Russian-speaking population predominates. The occupation would pose a serious challenge to NATO, whose principle is that an attack on one member is an attack on all. Thus, by occupying Narva, Putin would test whether the Alliance is really ready to risk a third world war over a few square kilometers on the border with the Russian Federation.

The Russian elite believes that NATO will not respond to Russia, because the West is tired and divided, and therefore less interested in fighting the Russians. They are convinced that the Alliance countries will allegedly not unite to defend the attacked country.

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