Military Expert: Ukrainian Forces Crab Kremlin's Game

The Russians' offensive is now in doubt.

Ukraine began to strike with Western weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation. How will this change the situation on the battlefield?

Charter97.org asked political expert Oleksandr Musienko, the head of the Ukrainian Center for Military and Legal Studies, to comment on this:

— Firstly, Ukraine got the opportunity to launch HIMARS and other types of weapons at the concentration of Russian troops near the Ukrainian borders. They are located there within 20-40 km on the territory of the Belgorod and Kursk regions.

Accordingly, this makes it possible to complicate the logistics of Russian troops and at least change their plans, and at most even abandon them. Including abandoning offensive actions, expanding the front.

The occupiers were gathering troops and could potentially expand the front in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. The Ukrainian Armed Forces strike precisely at the places where they are concentrated near the Ukrainian borders and, accordingly, disrupt these plans.

Secondly, this to a certain extent relieves the pressure on the Ukrainian troops who are fighting in the Kharkiv direction near Vovchansk and Liptsev.

Thirdly, it creates logistic problems for Russian troops. After all, they will be forced to move away from the Ukrainian border deeper into their Belgorod and Kursk regions.

Accordingly, they will move in columns entering the affected area. Ukraine plans to create a zone under the fire control of Ukrainian troops for 40-50 km on the territory of the Russian Federation.

I will also highlight an important point: Ukraine will strike on the rocket artillery of Russian troops: S-300 and S-400. In order to prevent Russian strikes on Kharkiv and the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

But the strikes on the S-300 are of a combined nature: to counter strikes on ground targets and stop (limit) missile terror, as well as to create an opportunity for Ukrainian aviation to fly in order to strike with Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG missiles, which are also planned against Russian military facilities.

— At the moment, there are still restrictions on the use of ATACMS missiles on the territory of the Russian Federation. Do you think Kyiv will get permission to hit military facilities in Russia with long-range weapons?

— I will start with the fact that now there are restrictions, since many Western partners of Ukraine want to make sure that this will not cause a situation of increased escalation. Because a lot of horror stories are launched from Russia. I mean that it won't be a cold day in hell after such strikes, and that Russia will have nothing to counteract in addition to what we have seen: missile terror, strikes on infrastructure and so on. Russia has already started a serious escalation.

I believe that over time, Western partners, having made sure of this, will give permission to use both ATACMS and more types of weapons, as well as expand the geography of these strikes.