Lukashenka Is In For ‘Surprises’

All his moves are readable.

Lukashenka conceived the parade as a demonstration of his triumph. He held on to power, is balancing half a millimeter away from a full-scale involvement in the war against Ukraine, and has received a nuclear umbrella. So he could brag. However, last week it became obvious that the triumph was not going well.

Holding on to power cost the demographics and the economy, as well as becoming completely dependent on Russia.

Balancing on the edge does not give freedom of maneuver. Yes, there are contacts with both Ukraine and the West, but they do not allow one to feel more confident at meetings with the Kremlin.

The nuclear weapons turned out not to be the property of the junta. And not a shield, but a fat target.

That's in short. And in such a configuration it would still be possible to spread out further. However, the issue of cargo transit suddenly arose. And if Poland's words could still be perceived as words, then there is no longer any desire to joke with China. Especially on the eve of the SCO summit in Astana, which should also be a triumph, but not everything is so clear-cut. The SCO countries should promote the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, and not damage it.

As a result, Lukashenka approaches the day of “triumph” with a different balance. A large delegation from Russia is coming to remind him about the political transit and the acceleration of absorption.

In Astana, the triumph is already spoiled, and additional unexpected surprises are possible.

What have they come up with within the framework of the concept of “we must do something”?

1. Referring to the holiday, avoid serious conversations with Russia.

2. Prepare for another “coronation”. In the current configuration, it is better to play your favorite game — delay the process.

3. Go to Astana to bow to China. To do this, they even had to move the schedule of the parade and other tinsel in Minsk.

4. Make curtsies and gestures towards Ukraine in order to get an “advocate” before the West.

5. Try to activate the Western track.

All tactical moves are readable, but only in Minsk they seem original and unexpected.

Telegram channel “Nick and Mike”

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