"The Meaning Of This Action By Lukashenko Is Difficult To Explain"
11- 28.10.2025, 8:51
- 11,642
Why is the regime attacking Lithuania with weather probes?
Lithuanian authorities are increasingly confident about the planned hybrid attacks of the Belarusian authorities in the form of launching weather probes with smuggled cigarettes.
As a retaliatory measure they close the border.
- "Apparently, the Lithuanian side is right," says Valery Karbalevich, political analyst of "Radio Svaboda" Valery Karbalevich, in his commentary to "Filin". - First, everything related to cigarettes, tobacco and the production of tobacco products is strictly controlled in Belarus.
Access to this has specific enterprises, closely connected with big business, which, again, is "under the roof" of the authorities.
Secondly, the territory of Belarus is strictly controlled by the authorities and all law enforcement agencies. It's hard to imagine that such a number of meteoprobes can fly quietly.
It's not about a single launch of one or two balloons, but about several launches in a row, and on one of the days 66 meteoprobes flew.
Even if we believe that the first launches were unauthorized actions of some unknown smugglers, what prevented the authorities from making some efforts to stop the subsequent ones?
So the suspicions of the Lithuanian side that these are purposeful actions of the Belarusian authorities are quite justified.
I assume that they are political in nature. This is an attempt to put pressure on Lithuania.
At the same time, the response of the Lithuanian government is also political action. The border closure is an attempt to put pressure on the Belarusian authorities, because there is no direct connection between the border closure and the weather probes.
The closed border will not prevent them. That is, I see political actions on both sides here.
- What sense can the Belarusian side put into their actions?
- It is difficult to explain their meanings. Only recently, at the official level, they proclaimed a course for détente. On October 14, Lukashenko devoted an entire meeting to relations with the West.
And peace-loving motives were sounded there, after which KGB Chairman Tertel said that Belarus offers the West "a détente in general of the tension that exists."
That is why the weather probes look rather strange against this background. It turns out that either this line specifically contradicts the declared course, or their left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing.
The reaction of the Belarusian side is not very clear yet. Its meaning - let's agree. That is, it is not excluded that this is a way of pressure, which should force Lithuania to some concessions, to some negotiations.
A rather strange way, I must say. Especially if we remember that the previous similar experience of pressure on the neighbors with the help of migrant attacks showed that it doesn't work that way.
It didn't work to force the neighbors to meet the official Minsk.
But these weather probes with contraband flew, and, as I think, again for the same purpose. For some reason, the Belarusian authorities stubbornly believe that it is this way of communication that leads to the détente. Strange logic, of course.
But the reaction of the second side is predictable: the Prime Minister of Lithuania said that there will be no negotiations under such pressure. This is a dead-end way.
- In the end, everything may end up with the fact that ordinary citizens will suffer, who will lose the opportunity to cross the border.
- Yes, people are already suffering, business and carriers are suffering. These are all negative consequences of these events - both for people and for communication between countries and peoples.
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