"In A Critical Case, Transit To Kaliningrad Will Be Completely Blocked"
11- 28.10.2025, 21:30
- 17,432
A Lithuanian analyst warned of Vilnius' readiness for new measures against Minsk.
Lithuania announced the indefinite closure of the border with Belarus after a series of incidents with weather probes. The Lithuanian authorities regard what is happening as an element of a hybrid attack and are preparing additional security measures.
Can border closure be considered an effective measure against such attacks? The site Charter97.org asked senior analyst of the Vilnius Institute of Political Analysis Marius Laurinavicius to give his assessment:
- The effectiveness of this measure will depend on the reaction - we will know the answer only by the reaction of the Belarusian regime. If the Belarusian regime stops its hybrid attacks, it means it is a good, asymmetric response. If not, it means that it is insufficient. So Lithuania takes the measures it should take when such hybrid attacks are launched against it.
- What other steps can Vilnius take if the weather probes continue to cross the border? Is it possible to use military or international security mechanisms?
- It depends on what is considered military mechanisms: if shooting down such probes, balloons or even drones is considered a military means, then, yes, a decision has already been made. Maybe Lithuania is not always technically ready to use such means, but the decision to shoot down has been publicly announced by our Prime Minister. Such means are also being discussed.
- Is it possible to completely cut off the transit of goods through Lithuania to Kaliningrad as a retaliatory measure?
- Such measures have also been discussed publicly. In a critical case, I think it is possible, because, as our foreign minister, Kjastutis Budrys, said, if it is related to national security, such a measure can also be used.
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