Russia Has Tripped Lukashenko Up
9- 29.10.2025, 12:30
- 25,080
The bets are in.
Belarus and Russia are siblings in the verbal space of propagandists. Almost Siamese twins. But their interests have been increasingly diverging lately. And in various areas, from the long-suffering economy to ideology, writes planbmedia.io.
Stakes are made
The problem with exports to Russia has already struggled the younger ally for a long time. Demand for civilian sector products is deflating. That forces numerous Belarusian managers to make excuses on a regular basis - the problems with sales, they say, are objective.
There was a vague hope for the Russian Central Bank. It turned out well with the Belarusian one - they replaced Kallaur with the compliant and understandable Golovchenko, and they are already planning economic growth, bankers' unbundling, and economic use of hitherto useless reserves. But in Russia it is more complicated. The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina has clearly stated that the Central Bank will not stimulate demand.
Mol, a sharp increase in demand may occur due to premature rate cuts. And then the regulator will have to raise the key rate again. Such a scenario could hurt the economy the most.
"What could hurt the economy the most is if, due to the premature easing of our policy, aggregate demand rushes forward again, before the production capacity has time to catch up, and the rate will have to be raised again," said Nabiullina in the State Duma.
So Minsk should not expect a speedy rate cut and cheaper loans. The cycle of key rate reduction will take the whole 2026. The problems, which Minsk tried to call temporary, are becoming long-term.
Allow Daddy
Russia still holds the keys to Lukashenko's next (after the phone call and compliments from Trump, we can already talk about the next) diplomatic success. But the head of the Belarusian Orthodox Church, Veniamin, at a meeting with the pope's special envoy, Cardinal Claudio Gugerotti, said the possible visit of Pope Leo XIV to Belarus should be discussed with the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill.
No matter how much Lukashenko would like to meet with the new pope, no matter how much the cardinal, who visited the Palace of Independence, praises him, there's no way without Moscow's blessing.
Veniamin explained the need to coordinate the visit by the fact that the majority of believers in Belarus belong to the Belarusian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate.
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