Lukashenko Won't Be Trusted With "Oreshnik"?

Perhaps Russia will limit itself to supplying only launchers.

Russia plans to deploy new Oreshnik missile systems in Belarus this December. This information was confirmed by Lukashenko's press secretary Natalya Eismont. According to official statements, preparations for the deployment are already in the final stages, writes Polish publication Defence24 (translation - website (Charter97.org).

Lukashenko called the decision to deploy the Oreshnikovs "a reaction to the escalation from the West," emphasizing that the system is "defensive" in nature. However, he did not provide details about the number of launchers, nor about the terms of their delivery.

Information about the planned deployment of the complexes previously appeared in the context of the joint Russian-Belarusian exercises "Zapad-2025," which took place in September. Official statements by the Belarusian Defense Ministry said that the exercises included the practice of elements of "strategic deterrence," including the use of modern missile systems. However, it is unclear whether there were actually operational Oreshnik missiles at the ranges, or whether they were just mock-ups or launchers.

To date, there have only been two known cases of this weapon being used. In late 2024, Russia used the Oreshnik missile during an attack on the Yuzhmash plant in Dnipro, and in February 2025, a test launch took place at a Russian test site, ending with the missile exploding shortly after launch. This means that despite ambitious claims, the effectiveness of the system remains in question, and its combat readiness has not been confirmed.

The Oreshnik project is surrounded by many uncertainties. The scale of production of these missiles and the actual number of units produced are unknown. Official Russian statements point to the beginning of "serial production," but independent sources suggest that we may be talking about only a small number of prototypes. As a result, despite the statement about the deployment of the system in Belarus, it is difficult to say whether combat missiles will actually be deployed there.

It is also possible that missile-less launchers will appear at Belarusian facilities, which are primarily of a demonstration nature. Such actions have been previously used by Moscow and Minsk as part of the so-called "demonstration of deterrence" - raising tension by demonstrating equipment that is not necessarily in full combat readiness.

All this means that the statement about the deployment of Russian missiles in Belarus is now mainly symbolic in nature. However, in a practical sense - without convincing evidence of serial production and effective testing - the Oreshnik remains a project with an uncertain status rather than a real means of increasing combat potential.

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