Why Have Illegals Disappeared From The Belarusian-Polish Border?
12- 21.11.2025, 12:02
- 19,152
Border guards urge not to draw unequivocal conclusions.
For three days in a row, Polish border guards have not observed a single attempt to illegally cross into Poland from Belarus. Before that, only 10 attempts to cross the border were recorded in three days. The decrease in migration pressure coincided with the announcement of the imminent opening of two checkpoints - "Kuznitsa" and "Bobrovniki," and since November 17, when they became operational, migrants disappeared from the Belarusian-Polish border altogether. Polish Gazeta Wyborcza found out why this happens.
Press-secretary of the Podlaski department of the Border Guard Service Katarzyna Zdanowicz does not want to make any definite conclusions yet.
- Such situations have already happened. Last January there were no such attempts for five consecutive days. There have always been fewer such incidents in the fall and winter periods," she said. -It may be due to the opening of the crossings in Bobrovniki and Kuznica, or it may be due to the fact that it got colder," Zdanovich said.
Professor of the Faculty of International Relations of the University of Bialystok Daniel Boczkowski with does not exclude that the decrease in illegal crossings across the Polish-Belarusian border is due to the opening of border crossings, but also draws attention to the lower activity in the fall and winter periods of couriers engaged in ferrying migrants to the West.
- Perhaps Lukashenko wants to show that cooperation with him pays off. That is, he wants to show that a gift from his side for opening the border at Podlasie could be a temporary blocking of illegal border traffic. However, at any moment he may decide that this is not profitable for him and turn on this channel even stronger than before," he says.
A former military intelligence officer, reserve lieutenant colonel Matej Korowai says that the disappearance of migrants is "definitely not an accident, but why it happens - there is no certainty anymore."
- Perhaps this is the result of an agreement with Belarus, also reached using intelligence channels. Undoubtedly, Poland's opening of the border with Belarus in the Podlaskie Voivodeship is an exit of the stronger towards the weaker on the principle: "Let's see how you behave," Korowai says.
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