"Kommersant": Russia Has Lost Space

It will take six months to two years to repair Baikonur.

Technical structures collapsed at the Baikonur Cosmodrome after the launch of the Soyuz MS-28. Until the launch table is restored, Russia will not be able to launch Soyuz and Progress manned spacecraft to the ISS, the situation is assessed by Kommersant's interlocutors. "Roscosmos" confirmed the damage to the elements of the launch table. The corporation assured that there are parts to replace the destroyed ones. On Thursday, November 27, during the launch of the Soyuz MS-28 rocket to the ISS, the retractable maintenance cabin was ripped out and thrown outside. Judging by the published footage, it flew about 20 meters and crashed.

How long will Baikonur be repaired? A member of the St. Petersburg organization of the Russian Federation of Cosmonautics Alexander Khokhlov cites two scenarios for replacing parts, it will take from six months to two years: "If you do from scratch according to the drawings that are available, it will take a very long time, because before all these platforms and service cabins were assembled in Kramatorsk. That is, this production will have to be re-learned in Russia. Another option is to take such a cabin, for example, from the Gagarin launch, which was mothballed and given to Kazakhstan as a museum. This cabin is in more or less normal condition there. If Russia comes to an agreement with Kazakhstan, and on some terms a part of the historical launch table is transferred to Russia, it will not be very expensive and not very long. But still, most likely, it will last at least until the summer of 2026.

With regard to the delivery of crews and cargo, there are also two options. The first one is that we will really have to negotiate with the U.S. and pay, because when Russian Progress ships delivered American cargoes to the ISS, NASA paid Roscosmos for the cargo flow. The second is that, for example, the Americans will deliver cargoes in debt, and then, when the flights continue, Roscosmos will send additional cargoes on Progress ships to the station. This barter option is also possible, because now, for example, cross-flights of astronauts are done on a barter basis. And the money, most likely, can only be taken from some reserve funds, it is not spelled out anywhere, and only some emergency funding can be allocated for this."

But now there are risks for cross-flights with astronauts, and for the delivery of cargo to the ISS in general, if it is not possible to find ready parts for Baikonur, says rocket launch analyst Georgy Trishkin: "We can say that this is probably one of the most serious accidents at this particular site for a very long time. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like there will be any quick repairs yet. The hardest part here is probably the installation, as there is no direct way to put it back in place. The other question is: what other elements might have gotten damaged? Now we're talking about repairs taking six months, or in a worst-case scenario, a year and a half, maybe even two.

All of this imposes very big problems directly on the ISS station. Since the ISS depends on Progress spacecraft for orbit correction.

Luckily, just a few months ago an option was tested with the Crew Dragon spacecraft, there you can install an additional propulsion system in the cargo bay that allows you to push the station. For example, to steer away from space debris or simply to correct altitude. But, of course, the issue of manned launches arises, since the rotation lasts about six months, sometimes a little more. Accordingly, if the next crew on the Soyuz rocket cannot arrive, how long will the current crew, which arrived on the Soyuz MS-28 spacecraft on November 27, stay on the station? There is, for example, a cross-flight program between the U.S. and Russia, but unfortunately it simply does not work without Soyuz launches. And the station cannot be left without at least one representative of Russia.

The issue with food and other cargo can be closed at the expense of even three American contractors. In this case, it is the Cargo Dragon ship. The next ship, the Boeing Starliner, will also fly with cargo, without crew. And there's also the Cygnus ship. Plus Japan has an HTV ship. But the key question is how long the repairs will last. Unfortunately, the Vostochny and Plesetsk cosmodromes are not suitable for manned launches of the Soyuz rocket. The official response of Roscosmos has been very restrained, there is no, for example, a photo of the iron directly for this design or some parts, also the situation with the budget is unclear."

The Soyuz MS-28 spacecraft with Russian cosmonauts docked with the ISS on Thursday, November 27. On board were Roscosmos cosmonauts Sergei Kud-Sverchkov and Sergei Mikaev, as well as NASA astronaut Christopher Williams.

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