Dmitry Bondarenko: 2026 Could Be A Year Of Change

Significant changes will take place both in Belarus and in the whole region.

What was the outgoing year for Belarus and the world? Who are the main heroes of 2025? What to expect from 2026?

About this, Charter97.org asked the coordinator of the civil campaign "European Belarus" Dmitry Bondarenko:

- The main event is, of course, the fact that Ukraine survived the war against Russia. And despite the propaganda statements of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces that they are capturing more and more, in fact experts say that the aggressor failed to capture more than 1% of Ukraine's territory.

At the same time, the end of the year showed that the Russian Federation is experiencing a very serious crisis in all areas. Certainly, the general crisis situation in Russia has become obvious, because many people said that "sanctions do not work", that "Russia is stronger than ever".

I would also note Lithuania's firm position towards Lukashenko's regime in international terms. Today Lithuania understands more than anyone else that it can become the next object of Russia's aggression, including the use of the territory of Belarus. That is why it acts very resolutely - both with regard to migration attacks and Lukashenko's actions with so-called weather balloons.

- The end of the year was marked by negotiations between the US and Ukraine. Donald Trump met with Vladimir Zelensky at Mar-a-Lago. In the near future, the Europeans will discuss each country's contribution to Ukraine's security. How do you assess these negotiations? What to expect?"

- I would like to go back to President Trump's promises to end Russia's war against Ukraine in one day. But a year has already passed, and as they say, "the wax is still there." And it is good that negotiations are going on, because people are really dying, suffering, and I mean Ukraine in the first place. I would like peace to come, but peace on Russia's terms will only lead to the unleashing of an even more powerful war, which could escalate into a world war. Of course, everyone expects that a peace agreement will be reached, mostly along the front line that exists today.

Definitely, the position of Europe as a whole has strengthened. We read information that the economies and military industries of Germany, Poland, the Baltic States, even France have significantly increased their output. Today we are already talking about the fact that the EU countries have reached a level comparable to that of Russia in terms of shell production. This is good information for Ukraine, because it strengthens its negotiating position.

In my opinion, these negotiations will last at least two or three more months. At the same time, of course, the situation for the residents of Ukraine remains extremely difficult, because the strikes on the energy system of the country lead to the fact that people are increasingly often left not only without light, but also without heat. Here, of course, we all hope and pray for the Ukrainians that they will be able to withstand this situation.

- You mentioned that there is a growing crisis in Russia. We see that it cannot cope with the effects of the sanctions and the strikes that Ukraine is taking on the home front, including the oil refineries. What do you think is in store for Russia next year?

- For me, the markers of the situation in Russia have been people like Colonel General Leonid Ivashov. He, although retired, remains an authority in the military sphere. Another marker for me was Andron Konchalovsky, the Russian director who produced the series Chronicles of the Russian Revolution.

And, of course, such a marker is Igor Lipsits, a well-known Russian economist who, even a few months before the end of the year, was saying that Russia's economy was collapsing. He gave the example that the budget deficit this year will be about 8 trillion rubles, in terms of translation that's about $100 billion.

I mean, a similar budget deficit in the late 80s eventually led to the collapse of the USSR. At the end of 2025 there were shocking data on industry: the production of tractors in Russia decreased by 60%, cars - by 30%. And many other indicators fell catastrophically.

If we talk about Konchalovsky, his movie was made, among other things, with serious state money. The movie was shown on Russia-1 channel, commissioned by the main state TV channel. The revolutionaries in the movie are shown as epathetic and funny - it is clear that this is a reference to today's Russian opposition, as the Kremlin leadership would like it to be. At the same time, it becomes clear that the film is not only about World War I, although a significant part is devoted to it.

An obvious analogy is made with today and Russia's current war. Konchalovsky may have been adjusting to the authorities, but at the same time, as they say, he kept his hand in his pocket. The movie was aired on the channel "Russia-1", and the idea there is the same - it is about today. The parallels with the collapse of the Russian Empire follow from this movie by themselves.

Colonel General Ivashov's recent statement that Russia had suffered a strategic defeat, as well as his warnings before the war that it was not worth starting it, that it would be a mistake and a catastrophe, have been fully confirmed today.

For me, these three men are markers. They signal that Russia is indeed close to a situation similar to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the Russian Empire at the beginning of the last century.

And this did not just happen. It is the result of the firmness of the Ukrainian leadership, the firmness of the Ukrainian people and their desire to defend their freedom and independence. The next year, 2026, may turn out to be completely unexpected.

- A number of political prisoners have been released, including the leaders of the 2020 protests. What does this say about the state of Lukashenko's regime? Does the release of political prisoners change the situation in Belarus?

- I believe that the release of hundreds of Belarusian political prisoners, albeit in conditions when they cannot stay in Belarus, can be considered a success of the Belarusian democratic opposition. Especially that part of it, which has consistently advocated sanctions against Lukashenko's regime. This is direct evidence that the sanctions are working.

We heard calls to the West, as well as to the Belarusian opposition themselves, demanding to seek the termination of the sanctions, their removal. This was absurd. Obviously, sanctions lead to negotiations and then to the beginning of the liberation process. The U.S. lifted sanctions on Belaruskali and Belavia, but without similar steps on the part of European countries, these decisions do not bring significant relief to the regime. At the same time, we managed to secure the release of the majority of the most prominent Belarusian opposition activists and those who were considered leaders.

Here I want to say that these leaders today bear both great responsibility and great expectations. The people who said their word and put their freedom and life on the line in 2020 must now assume even greater responsibility - for Belarusians at home and abroad, and for the fate of the country as a whole. I expect these people, including the leaders of "European Belarus" and other well-known figures, to take concrete actions that could turn the situation in Belarus around. We are not an object - we are subjects, and our leaders are also subjects. And we all expect a lot from them.

On the whole, I assess what is happening positively and believe that our goal is to achieve the cessation of all repressions in the Republic of Belarus through sanctions and their partial lifting, to ensure that Belarusians can stay in the country at will and that changes for the better begin. This is possible because Lukashenko has realized: the war is ending, and by no means with Russia's victory, he will still have to negotiate with the West and change many things inside the country. Therefore, 2026 may become a year of significant changes in Belarus as well.

- Who would you name as the main hero of the passing year?

- The main heroes of this year are the entire Ukrainian people and our Belarusian political prisoners. Those political prisoners who are already free, and those thousands, whose release we are eagerly waiting for.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com