"I Wouldn't Be Surprised If The Belarusian Plant Goes Up In Flames"

Ukrainian special services may be interested in certain military enterprises.

Alexander Lukashenko plans to build a giant factory in Belarus to produce Russian drones. Such actions make Belarus not just an accomplice in the war, but also a potential target for retaliatory strikes by the AFU.

Why is Lukashenko going for such a dangerous rapprochement with the Russian military-industrial complex, despite the possible consequences for Belarus? This and other questions Charter97.org asked military expert, director of New Geopolitics Research Network and expert of the Ukrainian Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies Mikhail Samusy:

- I do not believe that Belarus today is a subject of international relations. Since 1999 there have been union states of Russia and Belarus. Since then, in my opinion, nothing has changed, except for the fact that Belarus has finally lost its subjectivity. Therefore, I do not see any "rapprochement". Is this the first joint production of war-related equipment? I think not. According to the latest data, about 500 Belarusian enterprises are involved in cooperation with the Russian military-industrial complex.

The rest of the Russian economy is in a catastrophic state - coal industry, metallurgy, agriculture - everything is flying into the abyss. The only two industries that are now "growing", if it can be called that, are the production of military equipment and ammunition, including gunpowder. This is the official Russian statistics.

It is obvious that Belarusian enterprises cannot develop cooperation with other sectors now, because Russian industries are simply dying. And where there is money, that's where Lukashenko goes. Do you have funds to produce drones? Good, we will produce them. What problems? Open a factory. Where there is money - there goes Lukashenko.

- What are the risks for Belarus in the case of hosting a plant for the production of Russian UAVs? Could it entail strikes from Ukraine?

- If Belarus starts to take part in hostilities against Ukraine, then it is possible. But as long as it is not directly involved, Ukraine will not strike its territory. Why do the AFU need hundreds more kilometers of front? To have ballistic missiles flying at them in response? Ukraine is closely watching everything. Now Belarus is actually a hostile state for Ukraine. And if it takes part in the war, its entire territory will become a legitimate target for the AFU.

What about individual factories - Ukrainian special services can, of course, work on such objects. I wouldn't be surprised if one of them suddenly goes up in flames. The situation is alarming - like the weather: fog and webs flying around.

I think for now Ukraine will act diplomatically - through new sanctions, diplomatic notes, protests. Direct military intervention is unprofitable for Ukraine at this stage.

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