"Lukashenko Is Bringing Only Pills From The Kremlin"

The political analyst spoke about the degradation of the regime and the dictator himself.

Recently, Alexander Lukashenko has been defiantly isolated from the cameras and the public. He is shown only from afar, avoiding close-ups, and at meetings he is seated far away, at absurdly long tables. Today, Lukashenko shocked with a flabby appearance in St. Petersburg. Rumors of his deteriorating health and growing inadequacy are becoming more frequent.

Is Lukashenko not repeating the path of Soviet general secretaries, living out their last months in the shadows? Charter97.org spoke to political observer Dmitry Bolkunts about this:

- It is clear that human age is limited. More precisely, the term of stay on Earth is limited by certain parameters - nature, medical help, some other possibilities. Therefore, Lukashenko will not be an exception. Maybe he thinks that he will rule forever, but it will not happen. Soviet general secretaries thought the same way: Brezhnev thought, thought - and eventually died. Others died. Stalin died. Everyone died. And Lukashenko will not be an exception.

Of course, the best option for him is to die in office. I heard one hypothesis a few months ago: why he tricked Putin into running in the January 2025 elections. Allegedly he persuaded Putin to stay on for one more term so that he himself could die in office. He apparently wanted it that way. I don't know whether it's true or not, but this version was heard.

The fact that he is now being shown in a bad light is probably not accidental. Apparently, there are reasons to hide his condition. I should note, though: he's tightened up a bit in the last year and a half - not like he did in 2023, when he could barely move. Back then, he was even carried out on a stretcher and given a specialty vehicle. I assume the medics are actively monitoring him, putting him on pills. But that's not the point. What is important is another thing: for a long time - both in Russia and in Western analytical centers, including the United States, and in China as an eastern vector - the question has been discussed not when Lukashenko will leave (in a month, a year, five years), but what will happen after him, after his death.

The main question is what will happen after Lukashenko leaves life. How will Belarus develop, who will lead the country, what processes will begin? Today's moment is a kind of pause. Everyone is just waiting for an event that could lead to changes. It was approximately the same in the Soviet period and in other countries that were under Moscow's influence - Bulgaria, Romania, Poland.

- Are there any signs of physical or cognitive degradation in Lukashenko? How serious are they and can they affect the functioning of the regime?

- There should be one leader, one leader in the pride. And if the leader behaves weakly - be it a wolf or a lion - he is turned away, ignored. Lukashenko should show signs of a pack leader, be "macho", but he fails. And a macho man has to feed everyone around him. Fodder must be extracted. It is given only to the strong. For the weak - only pills, at best a wreath will be sent.

In this sense, his trips for money to Beijing and Moscow show that he no longer brings "booty". He is now bringing only pills from the Kremlin. Maybe they can give him drops, but he is no longer providing the fodder he used to.

I believe he himself realizes that his time is running out. It's obvious. Every person at some point thinks about the finitude of his existence. Lukashenko is thinking about his legacy, about how he will be remembered. Of course, he would like to preserve not just his name, but to keep it, as he believes, from being defamed. He may be working on that.

But I will emphasize: the question is not about his health or his death. The question is really more fundamental - what will happen to Belarus after Alexander Lukashenko's physical departure. This question should be on the agenda, because it will happen sooner or later. How will the transfer of power take place? Will there be a transformation of the political system, will deep reforms begin? Or, on the contrary, will the country be mothballed, turned into the BSSR in its worst version - with complete elimination of independence?

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