Leonid Sudalenko: Belarusians Refused To Work For A Bowl Of Soup

Why the Lukashenko regime is preparing changes in the pension system.

Economist Lev Lvovsky reported that Lukashenko's regime is planning to raise the retirement age for women to 63.

How likely is this move and how will it affect Belarusians? For a commentary the site Charter97.org turned to human rights activist and former political prisoner Leonid Sudalenko:

- The issue of raising the retirement age has been discussed for a long time. I even joked: when I turned 50, everyone congratulated me and said: "Well, in 10 years you will retire". Then I turned 53, and again it turned out that retirement is still 10 years away. That is, I'm running after my pension, but it keeps getting away from me. If now they raise it to 65 for men, it will again turn out that I can't keep up with the pension.

Today in Belarus, the retirement age is 58 years for women and 63 years for men. The increase was gradual from 2017 to 2022, and that's where the authorities say the process has ended. Official representatives of the Ministry of Labor and Social Security emphasize: after 2022, the increase of the retirement age for women is not considered. But this is the official position of the state.

At the same time, rumors about possible changes periodically pop up in the media and expert environment. Why? This is primarily due to demographic challenges. The population is aging, plus we need to take into account the mass exodus of able-bodied people abroad, especially after the events of 2020. We see how many doctors have left, how many IT specialists, and specialists from other fields. All this creates an additional burden on the pension system: the less people work and pay taxes, the harder it is to support pensioners.

Of course, we can listen to the opinion of economists, but so far it is only a discussion. The law enshrines exactly the current situation. I believe that raising the retirement age is a controversial measure. For the state, it is a way to somehow replenish the pension fund and partially solve the problem of staff shortage. But for people, especially women of pre-retirement age, it will be a serious test. After all, health cannot be adjusted to the figures in the passport: one woman at 58 can no longer work, while another feels good at 68. Therefore, along with the increase there should be social guarantees and support for those who objectively cannot work longer.

- Belarus is experiencing a demographic crisis - hundreds of thousands have left, young people do not see a future in the country. What does it mean for the pension system and the economy?

- First of all, the population is aging. There are more and more people of retirement age, and there are fewer and fewer young people. I recently saw a story about schools in Gomel: somewhere there are no longer enough children to form classes. This speaks about the falling birth rate. If women do not give birth, the population will age, labor resources are not replenished.

Plus emigration. After the mass repressions of 2020, a huge number of qualified specialists went abroad - not only doctors, but also people from other industries. As a result, we have a shortage of personnel. The shortage of workers and technical professions - people "from the machine" - is especially acute. On the contrary, there is a surplus of economists and lawyers.

- What methods will the Lukashenko regime try to close the deficit?

- I think that if the budget deficit becomes too acute and there is not enough money even to pay pensions, the regime will impose new taxes and levies. This is typical of non-democratic regimes: "deputies" will sign whatever they say from above.

Yes, this will cause discontent among the population, but in the current conditions, people are not free to protest. We remember 2017 and the "decree on deadbeats" - then the society won its abolition. Now the situation is different: the country actually lives in a state of martial law, the laws do not work.

In addition, Lukashenko has already agreed to attract migrants from Pakistan and other Asian countries. The first batches are expected, and further hundreds of thousands of people may be brought in. Belarusians don't want to work "for a bowl of soup" and go to Europe, where they can earn decent money. But migrants from Asia will go to Belarus - they simply have no way to get to the EU.

Thereby, the regime has three options: new taxes and fees, mass attraction of migrants and reduction of social expenditures. All of them bring more problems for people than solutions.

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