"For Khamenei, Russia Is Just A Traveling Companion."

A political scientist commented on the protests in Iran and their possible consequences.

Massive protests are sweeping Iran, and despite violent Internet blockades and threats from security forces, city streets continue to fill with people.

What's happening in Iran right now? How widespread are the protests?

The following questions were posed to Charter97.org by Eugene Magda, head of the Ukrainian Institute of World Politics:

- I think the protests are fairly widespread, as they are for a large-scale Middle Eastern country like Iran. To say that they will necessarily lead to a change of power, I will not take it upon myself to say.

- Protesters have said that today is a decisive day. What could be the development of events and is there a chance for a breakthrough?

- You see, practice shows that revolutions are carried out, as a rule, in capitals, but neither in Tehran nor in the religious capital of Iran, the city of Qom, there is, as far as I know, such an advantage of the protesters that allows them to talk about cardinal success. It is the logic of the protesters to say that they are winning. Otherwise, who will join them if they don't say that? So everything is logical.

- The fall of the ayatollahs' regime will be a serious blow to Putin, who is already losing allies one by one. How can Russia react?"

- I believe that for Ali Khamenei Russia is a fellow traveler, not a strategic ally. And as for Iran - a state that under sanctions has managed to establish, for example, the production of Shaheds and exchange missile strikes with Israel, as in ping-pong, still through the forbidden state - it probably has some stable moments.

I think rumors that Khamenei is already sitting on a plane to Moscow are somewhat exaggerated.

- What kind of support can the US and Israel provide to the Iranian protesters - and how much of an impact can that have on the situation?"

- The US and Israel are not going to provide assistance to the protesters. They are going to realize their own interests. That's one.

Americans five years ago killed Qasem Suleimani, the leader of Iran's special operations. But I will say this, and Prince Reza Pahlavi talked about this, that if there is American outside influence, armed intervention, it can consolidate Iranian society against the aggressor. So both the U.S. and Israel have to work through their agency. This is classic.

But you have to realize that Iran has a very long experience of confronting all enemies. They are quite powerful. And it is a Shiite state, whereas most of the countries of Islam are Sunni.

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