ISW: The Kremlin Is Preparing For Mass Unrest In Russia

Riots could break out as a result of the mobilization.

The Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a possible mobilization and preparing for potential unrest in Russia.

This was reported by Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Who Is Allowed to Serve on a Contract Basis

On July 22, the Russian State Duma passed a bill allowing citizens with outstanding criminal convictions —including for drug smuggling and participation in organized criminal groups—to enter into contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense during formal mobilization periods.

Russia’s Deputy Minister of Defense and Chief of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Army General Viktor Goremykin, stated on the same day that the law will expand the pool of Russians eligible for military service, and facilitate efforts to recruit fighters for the war against Ukraine in 2026.

What the Russian National Guard Is Preparing

On July 21, the Russian National Guard, Russia’s militarized internal security agency, published proposed amendments expanding civil defense regulations—allegedly to protect Russian society from unspecified “dangers” during mobilization, martial law, and wartime.

What Putin Has Already Authorized

In November 2025, President Putin signed a law allowing him to deploy reservists to combat zones without declaring mobilization. At the time, ISW analysts already assessed that the Kremlin would likely use this law to carry out phased, partial call-ups of reservists.

Analysts’ Conclusion

According to ISW’s assessment, the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for declaring a formal mobilization and potentially imposing martial law within Russia itself, in preparation for possible civil unrest—since mobilization remains extremely unpopular among the Russian public.

Analysts note that the decision on mobilization remains a very personal one for Putin and, ultimately, depends on his own assessment of the situation on the front lines and the stability of the Kremlin. It is not yet clear whether Putin will make such a decision in the near future or exactly what an announcement of mobilization might look like.

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