"Phase Zero": Russia Is Preparing A Provocation Against NATO Using Ukrainian Drones

ISW analysts have revealed the details.

This is not the first time Lithuanian officials have claimed that the Russians are preparing a provocation on NATO’s eastern borders and are planning to attack the Baltic states.

Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas stated on August 6 that Russia could use captured Ukrainian-made drones to carry out a false-flag operation against the Baltic states, according to ISW.

Through such actions, the Russians may be attempting to create uncertainty regarding the origin of the attack and deny responsibility for strikes on NATO territory.

“We have information that Russia is considering the possibility of carrying out unconventional kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region,” Kaunas stated.

Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz issued a similar warning as early as July 21. He said that Russia could use captured Ukrainian drones to carry out a sabotage attack against NATO.

The Ukrainian military publication “Military” reported the same on August 1. Former advisor to the President of Ukraine on defense technologies Sergey “Flash” Beskrestnov provided evidence that Russia has begun using captured Ukrainian long-range drones for potential provocations against NATO countries.

Latvian Defense Minister Raivis Melnis stated on August 6 that there are currently no signs of imminent Russian aggression against any critical infrastructure in Latvia.

However, the Institute for the Study of War continues to monitor and gather evidence that Russia is conducting a “Zero Phase” campaign, the goal of which is to create the informational and psychological conditions for potential future provocations against NATO, and that Russian false-flag provocations, along with drone incursions, sabotage, electronic warfare jamming, and drone overflights, are part of this campaign.

Russia regularly violates the airspace over the Baltic Sea and may be doing so using Ukrainian drones as part of an information operation and/or a false-flag attack to test NATO countries’ reactions.

Meanwhile, British intelligence agencies believe that NATO allies will soon face actions by Vladimir Putin. According to experts, the Kremlin is preparing a “serious provocation” against the Alliance and the new British Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

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