"Sasha, It's Enough of Playing Games"

The position of Lukashenka is weaker than before.

Polish edition Rzeczpospolita informs, referring to close sources to the Kremkin, that Lukashenka is awaiting "tough talk" with Putin in Sochi. In exchange for the Belarusian dictator's request to cover a part of the external debt, the Russian ruler requires "closer integration" within the "Union State".

How much is the Lukashenka's position weak compared with past years? Charter97.org asked the coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign and one of the leaders of the Belarusian National Congress Jauhen Afnahel for comments:

- The position of Lukashenka is weaker than before. There are too many signals proving that Putin has decided to deal seriously with Belarus. Almost every day Russian media publishes articles that it's time to put an end to our country's independence, that Russian speaking population is being infringed. It's the first time when the Kremkin appoints former law enforcement agent Mikhail Babich known for his tough line as an ambassador in Belarus. He openly speaks about the "united Russian people" including the Belarusians. As for Lukashenka, such critics (mostly a fair one) thrown by the Russian media is sometimes not afforded even by many independent editorials of our country.

All this will happen against the backdrop of the economic pressure. Belarus failed with other tranches of the Eurasian Fund For Stabilization and Development amounted to $400 million. In addition, there are constant meat and diary wars waging; the tax maneuver is about to occur, and it will throw already weak position of Lukashenka under the bus.

Judging by statements about "the inclusion in the other state", for once the ruler more or less see the picture and sees what is awaiting him.

The Kremlin does not even need to twist hands of the Belarusian dictator. Lukashenka has nothing to set against Putin's requirements. One day he will be said: "Shasha, it's enough of playing independence."

If Lukashenka had had a minimal support of the people, he could have resisted. But his activity of many years has made people turn a deaf ear to him. Apparently, Moscow is tired of financing beggar-loser without having anything in return. The major part of Belarusians hates Lukashenka and will applause to everyone who replaces him. He cannot rely on officials and law enforcement agents as well. First ones will punish him for humiliations and arrests, second ones just have contempt for him. They also compare salaries and pensions with those in Russia. And it turns out that no "twisting hands", threats, excessed pressure and so on is needed.

- How reliable is the scenario of partial or complete loss of the sovereignty under Lukashenka possible? What patriots of Belarus should expect?

- Belarus has no sovereignty, and there is no thing to lose. The question at issue is when the Kremlin decides to legally document it.

First of all, patriots need to realize a simple truth - to stop living under the illusion and faith that Lukashenka's instinct of self-preservation will not deliver up independence. Concerts, wearing embroidered t-shirts, and begging for gifts from the occupation administration will not contribute to freedom. There are no such examples in the history. One should fight for freedom or even sacrifice one's life. We need to obtain it, not to defend. And the first step towards it is to break free from the weak local dictator who ha driven Belarus into a desperate situation.