One Curious Nuance Of Bolton’s Visit To Minsk

The advisor to the President of the United States made an important statement.

The visit of the National Security Adviser to the President of the United States John Bolton to Minsk on August 29 has already been christened historical. Indeed, this politician turned out to be the highest American official who visited Belarus in this century.

The evolution of the US attitude towards Belarus appears interesting. In the early 1990s, our country interested Washington in terms of geopolitics. The visit of the President of the United States Bill Clinton to Minsk in 1994 was a gesture of support for the position of the Belarusian authorities on the withdrawal of nuclear weapons from the country. Then, from the mid-1990s, Belarus aroused Washington's interest only as a result of human rights violations. And now geopolitics returns Belarus back to the mainstream of the American politics.

The conflict between Belarus and the United States, which began in 2004 with the adoption of the “Act on Democracy in Belarus” by the US Congress because of human rights violations, is not resolved. The sanctions, although suspended, are not lifted. The withdrawn ambassadors have not yet returned. Lukashenka himself remains under sanctions, on the American black list.

In the last year, there has been an intensification of communications between Belarus and the United States. Last week, information appeared that the state-owned Belarusian oil company had hired an American lobbyist to achieve the complete elimination of American sanctions and to have the opportunity for Belarus to buy oil in the United States.

Delivering oil from the United States is no less exotic than transporting it from Venezuela. In other words, there is no economic sense in this. But there is political sense. In order to induce congressmen, the presidential administration to lift the sanctions, and such a carrot was proposed in the form of a willingness to buy American oil. Such a simple bait.

The great interest of the Belarusian side in this visit is evidenced by the warm welcome given to John Bolton. In the exclusive interview that the National Security Advisor to the President of the USA gave at the Minsk airport before departure, an interesting phrase sounded: “I pointed on a Huawei store for Lukashenka on the way from the airport to the Independence Palace as we drove by - it’s just here in Minsk”. Does it follow from this remark that Lukashenka met Bolton at the airport? The ruler of Belarus rarely approaches a plane ladder for a foreign guest. This is a tribute. For this, a visitor must have a really top status, or the Belarusian side should be very interested in their arrival.

John Bolton visited Belarus on a par with a trip to Ukraine and Moldova - the EU-oriented countries. This is a demonstration of the United States’ willingness to compete with Russia for the influence on the region of Eastern Europe.

It is no coincidence that the theme of independence of Belarus was the leitmotif of all the statements of John Bolton in Minsk. The United States drew attention to Russia's policy to force Belarus to integrate, and regard such actions as continuing the course of the Russian Federation on foreign policy expansion, which began in 2014 with regard to Ukraine.

After the Crimea, there were many expert assessments that the West’s support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia was not strong enough. And so, they say, neither the EU nor the USA will meddle in to stand for Belarus. After all, the Belarusian territory is a universally recognized sphere of influence of Russia, in addition, there is a dictatorship here. So Bolton’s visit is a definite warning to Moscow that the United States will oppose the attempt at the Belarusian sovereignty by the Russian Federation.

There is another curious nuance. The Advisor to the US President said that the Belarusian people should decide for themselves what kind of relations they need to build with Russia, and that, in his opinion, Belarusians want independence. It can be understood that if Lukashenka and Putin agree to unite the two states, the United States will not recognize such a decision, since Belarus does not have democracy and there is no free expression of the will of citizens.

John Bolton told reporters that the issue of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons was discussed during the negotiations. It can be assumed that this refers to the Russian weapons. The US withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Missile Treaty. Vladimir Putin said that if such missiles appear in Europe, then Russia will give an adequate answer. It is possible that an option is being considered to deploy similar Russian missiles on Belarusian territory. Perhaps John Bolton wanted to probe this issue.

It is also possible that they were talking about possible deliveries of weapons from Belarus to Iran. In addition, John Bolton warned of the dangers of technological cooperation with China.

Of course, the shadow of Moscow constantly hung over the negotiations in Minsk.

Immediately after the departure of Mr. Bolton, the Belarusian leadership demonstrated the diplomatic skills of re-shoeing in the air. Hardly had the plane of the Advisor to the American President left the Minsk airport, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus Uladzimir Makei hastened to comment on the Belarus 1 TV channel. The main purpose was to calm Moscow. Like, there was nothing traitorous in the passed negotiations.

First of all, Makei emphasized that the initiative of Bolton’s arrival came from the American side. Like, we are not to blame, he himself came to us.

“There is no need to look for any conspiracy theories behind the very fact of the visit,” said Makei. And who is talking about the conspiracy? The Russian telegram channels.

The Russian agency Sputnik reported this comment of the Belarusian Minister under a rather eloquent headline: “Makei: No Calls To Join Something Sounded In Negotiations With Bolton.” Perhaps this question worried Moscow the most.

And Lukashenka’s telephone conversation with Putin on the second day after Bolton’s departure is also very indicative. Let the pretext for the phone call of the President of Russia be the wish to congratulate the Belarusian ruler on his birthday.

By the way, Lukashenka refused to go to Warsaw on September 1 for the events marking the 80th anniversary of the outbreak of the Second World War II. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry explained this by saying that the post-Soviet states of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Central Asian countries were not invited to the Polish capital, while the peoples of the USSR made a decisive contribution to the defeat of fascism.

However, besides the reluctance to annoy Moscow with his presence in Warsaw, there are two more reasons Lukashenka refused to go to Warsaw. First, an ideological, political struggle continues around the events marking the outbreak of Second World War. While in Europe the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact is unambiguously evaluated negatively, in Russia they are trying to justify it. And the official Belarusian ideological construct here coincides with the Russian one. Lukashenka’s arrival would be assessed as an indirect recognition of the Polish interpretation of this pact.

Secondly, if for Poland the events of September 1939 are definitely a tragedy, then in the history of our country they are connected with the reunification of Western and Eastern Belarus, that is, they are evaluated with a plus sign.

Therefore, the Foreign Ministry announced that Belarus will be represented at the event only by our ambassador in Poland. But here, once again, the political skill of changing shoes in the air was demonstrated. On August 30, Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Stanislau Zas and Deputy Foreign Minister Aleh Krauchanka arrived in Warsaw, though not to the official ceremony itself, but to the events related to it. Moreover, Stanislau Zas met in Warsaw with the same John Bolton and the leaders of the Security Councils of Poland and Ukraine.

Valer Karbalevich, Svobodnye Novosti Plus