The Spring Offensive

The political analyst believes that there will be a surge of protest moods in Belarus in March-April 2021.

Famous Russian political analyst Andrei Suzdaltsev shared his vision of the situation in Belarus. Here are some theses from his article on politoboz.com.

Lukashenka and his close entourage are managers of the past, the industrial age. It's the age of collective and state farms, endless fields, workshops covered with lampblack and thousands of machines, demonstrations of loyalty and parades, common needs and forms of their satisfaction, gross indicators and warehouses full of unmarketable goods, TV with a common and approved point of view. Let us recall that Lukashenka is rather the "TV president," than the Internet one. Naturally, he takes the Internet as an enemy: authoritarianism and the Internet have nothing in common.

A fascist junta of law enforcers in the XXI century in the age of the Internet is nonsense in Europe. How do Lukashenka and law enforcers intend to retain their power? Let's take the latest threats. For example, they expect the "second wave" of resistance - the "Spring offensive" - in late March 2021. How can one stop it? The authorities can stop the new mass street protests by force, including the use of lethal weapons against unarmed civilians. It would be a disaster for the regime that relies only on bayonets.

The reaction of Moscow, which is now entering the Duma election campaign on the wave of the Navalny problem, is quite predictable. It means an immediate negotiated transit of power in Belarus. Russia cannot criticize the Democrats in the United States for rigged elections and at the same time support Lukashenka. Opponents with permanently growing numbers would immediately take advantage of this striking contradiction in the political rhetoric of the ruling class in Russia. A return to the transit of power means the collapse of the junta and the end of the support of Lukashenka's clan.

Comment

It is hilarious to observe the Belarusian state media and representatives of the Belarusian "expertise" trying to outline from the reasons for the popular protests. They serve many reasons. They start with the liberalism of the Belarusian authorities (!), "greediness" of the Belarusian population accustomed to a prosperous life, and end with the IT sector, interference of the West. However, the propagandists never mentioned the main reason for the Belarusian political crisis - rigged presidential elections in August of 2020. This topic is completely banned, which makes Belarusian experts lie.

Rebellion

Anyway, we will have to admit the current tactics of preventing a "Spring Offensive" contribute to the "explosion" in March-April 2021. The authorities are digging their own grave, as any mass demonstrations will instantly raise the necessity of an early transit of power. It will mean a revolt of the Belarusian security forces to a greater or lesser extent.

The problem is that the transit of power for law enforcers, who in any case turn to be expendable, means execution verdicts. So the junta does not have many options. In the first case, the law enforcers would betray Lukashenka and try to spread out in Eurasia. The second variant is that the Belarusian law enforcers liquidate A. Lukashenka and his clan to avoid responsibility. We'd like to draw your attention to the fact that any variant turns the junta into a firing squad microwave, which is typical of such structures and is a traditional fate for the game with authoritarianism.