If the "spirit of coups" is constantly disturbed, it materializes.
Russian political scientist Andrei Suzdaltsev on politoboz.com analyzes Lukashenka's statement that political scientist Alexander Feduta, head of the BPF party Ryhor Kostuseu and Yury Zenkovich were involved in attempted assassination planning of him and his sons. The dictator also said that the intelligence services and the U.S. government were behind it:
- The video and the recording makes an impression. There was a conspiracy, without any doubt. However, some amateurs and naive dreamers developed the idea of seizing power, arrests of the Belarusian government members and the seizure of Minsk (the author quotes the video of the meeting in a cafe). It's hilarious... This is not the way conspiracies are made. Conspirators at least read smart books. One might advise Edward Luttwak's textbook, published in 2021 by the Russian Foundation for Education and Science in Moscow, "Coup d'état. A Practical Guide." The binding is rigid (!). Besides, the author of these lines somehow does not see the arrested as organizers of the military revolt. Things these people discussed in Zoom and the cafe are the talking point for all of Belarus. It's a common kitchen talk of millions. Is everyone going to jail?
So, the author of these lines considers his duty to express doubt that the arrested people pose any threat to the national security of the Republic of Belarus. These people are known for their anti-governmental political views, but they are hardly capable of any organized activity against the political regime existing in Belarus. Both of the arrested have always been known for their talkativeness and eagerness to give their persons exaggerated political importance and influence in the international arena and Moscow.
However, the Russian political analyst points out that Lukashenka is still afraid of repeating the fate of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, which the "conspirators" discussed:
- Having realized that all of Minsk could come out on May 9, 2021, Lukashenka cancelled the holiday parade. In principle, it was expected that the Belarusian dictator would cite the "third wave" of COVID-19. It would look extremely thin. In 2020, when there was still no vaccine in the world, Lukashenka announced "victory" over the coronavirus three times. At the same time, opposition marches were banned because of the epidemic, while pro-government marches were stimulated, which allowed the claim that Lukashenka's supporters could not contract the virus. Some officers even began to share this extraordinary "charge of energy and determination" by shaking hands...
Now, when the whole republic is allegedly vaccinated, as there is plenty of vaccines (Lukashenka is ready to supply it to Azerbaijan), the "third wave" happens all of a sudden.
In the end, everything becomes clear with May 9. One will announce that no parade will take place due to conspiracy or rebellion preparations. One should be grateful to Feduta for it. He remembered on Zoom about the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat right in the middle of the parade on October 6, 1981.
Andrei Suzdaltsev thinks that if the topic of rebellion and conspiracy is constantly raised, it will turn into a real thing in future:
- Conspiracies and subsequent terrorist acts are an indicator that the split in the Belarusian society has become unbearable for the state. It can exist, but it cannot develop. Constant threats of conspiracies, revolts, and terrorist acts paralyze the Belarusian state.
The Belarusian authorities do not realize that the riot and conspiracy mongering, the creation of the illusion of a terrorist threat means grasping at a double-edged blade and active raising "ghosts" from the bloody abyss. There is no doubt that these "ghosts" will materialize... And then what will the honoured film director of Bellywood, Ivan Tertel, do?