Andrei Sannikov: Lukashenko Will Have To Forget About The “Big Deal”

5.11.2026, 11:45
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New conditions for democratic change in Belarus may emerge.

The leader of the "European Belarus" civic campaign Andrei Sannikov believes that the results of the U.S. midterm elections, in which the Democratic Party gained control of both chambers, will have an impact on on Belarus and Ukraine. The opposition politician spoke about this in an interview with the website Charter97.org:

— This isn’t just a victory for the Democrats, but a veritable rout of the Republicans, which has already been dubbed the “blue tsunami.” Many point to U.S. President Donald Trump as the main culprit. However, I wouldn’t place all the blame on him.

The Republican Party effectively ceased to function as an independent political institution after coming to power. The party proved incapable of reining in the president, whose unpredictable decisions and authoritarian tendencies raised more and more questions.

Economic factors also played a significant role. Prices, including fuel prices, rose sharply before the election, a development linked to the war in Iran. Against the backdrop of rising living costs and the president’s falling approval ratings, voter dissatisfaction became particularly palpable. All of this combined led to such a crushing defeat for the Republicans.

— The Democrats have gained control of both chambers of Congress, but Trump will remain in the White House for another two years. What will this mean for the U.S. and global politics? To what extent will Congress be able to rein in the president?

— I fear that the domestic political situation in the U.S. could become quite tense. If Trump continues to push his political agenda, while the Democrats insist on implementing their own—including a more left-leaning agenda—this will inevitably lead to serious political conflicts.

As for global politics, I hope that the new Congress will be able to resume comprehensive aid to Ukraine and help the U.S. return to full-fledged cooperation with its transatlantic allies. First and foremost, this involves restoring coordination with European partners and pursuing a coordinated policy within NATO.
The Democrats will have significant leverage. Having secured a majority in both chambers, they will be able to chair key committees, including the appropriations committees. In other words, a significant portion of what is known as “the power of the purse” will be in their hands. This will allow them to influence budget decisions, control spending, and limit the president’s ability to implement his political initiatives.

— Will a Democratic victory affect Belarus?

— I think it will. First, the dreams of a mythical “big deal”—which, according to Lukashenko, could supposedly have resulted from his agreements with Trump—have now been definitively shattered by the election results. And even before that, all that talk wasn’t worth taking seriously. It was, rather, political fantasy.

Second, much will depend on how the United States’ attitude toward aid to Ukraine changes. As has been mentioned repeatedly, a Ukrainian victory in this war could create fundamentally new conditions for democratic change in Belarus.
I hope that the U.S. mission to secure the release of Belarusian political prisoners will continue. However, I would like to see it become more consistent and effective. The release of individual prisoners is an important step, but it is not enough. We must work to end political repression in Belarus and secure the release of all political prisoners.

— Recently, Trump has been stepping up pressure on Kyiv and trying to reach an agreement with Putin. What will the Republicans’ defeat change for — —Ukraine following the pressure from Trump?

— I think Trump’s political closeness to Putin and his attempts to build a special relationship with the dictator may gradually come to nothing. Without congressional support, it will be much more difficult for Trump to pursue his policy toward authoritarian leaders, including Putin.

Ukrainians have withstood yet another period of pressure from the U.S. president with dignity. They have demonstrated to the whole world that they are not prepared to make decisions that run counter to their national interests, and that no one has the right to impose their will on them.

This is particularly important at a time when Ukraine continues to fight not only for its own independence but also for democratic values, often without receiving the support it might have expected.

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