Now It's About To Begin

Trump has three options on the table.

The main question for the coming days is this: Will Trump decide to continue the military operation in Iran, and to what extent will he ramp up pressure on Ukraine in the coming weeks?

A Republican defeat could spark a major debate within the party about its future. And the main battle is the confrontation between the MAGA movement and the “old” party. The outcome of this battle will determine not only the next presidential nominee but—in a radical scenario—even the likelihood that some Republicans will vote to impeach Trump himself.

Congress will hold its first session with its new members on January 3. Trump desperately needs some kind of victory right now so he can approach this first session with strong bargaining chips. The fact is that immediately after electing a Speaker, the new Congress will begin forming investigative committees that will lay the groundwork for impeachment. And Trump needs to be able to counter this narrative in the media, and ideally, try to go on the offensive.

Right now, Trump has three options on the table. I’ll say right away that all three are questionable. The first is a quick, victorious war with Iran. The second is forcing Ukraine to make peace. The third is invading Cuba. I consider all these goals practically unrealistic, but, based on Trump’s logic, he may begin to act in these directions. Therefore, we need to prepare for increased pressure.

Against this backdrop, it is highly likely that Russia will begin to wind down the so-called “Dmitriev track,” realizing that Trump’s options are becoming more limited. This means we cannot yet count on Trump to force Europe to lift sanctions. That is precisely why, by all accounts, Europeans should prepare for an intensification of hybrid attacks across the EU.

As for the negotiations, they have no chance of success (Medinsky as the chief negotiator is already a red flag). The window of opportunity for negotiations closed a month ago. Now it’s just a charade.

Vadim Denisenko, “Facebook”

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