"The Democrats Are Soundly Defeating Trump"
6- 27.10.2026, 16:41
- 5,330
A Ukrainian diplomat explained the choice facing the Republicans.
On November 3, midterm elections for Congress will be held in the United States. According to polls, Donald Trump is, in effect, is effectively putting the Republican Party in the crosshairs: rising prices and voter dissatisfaction threaten its majority in Congress.
How might the midterm elections shift the balance of power in Congress? The website Charter97.org posed this and other pressing questions to Ukrainian diplomat and political scientist Oleksandr Khara, director of the Center for Defense Strategies .
— How likely is it that the Republicans will lose their majority in both chambers?
— Judging by the trends, the Republicans and Trump are clearly losing the House of Representatives to the Democrats. There shouldn’t be any major surprises there. The only possibility is attempts at interference: Trump might deploy the National Guard or try to block the election results through the courts. He might contest the results and seek to have them declared invalid. Such problems are entirely possible. That’s typical of Trump; he does this all the time.
As for the Senate, I’ve seen various projections that put the probability of the Democrats securing a slim majority at around 60%. To me, however, that still seems quite unlikely.
Americans are fairly conservative in this regard. If they’ve elected a representative from one party, that person is usually re-elected. It’s very rare for anything to change. That’s the first point. Second point: Trump is currently trying to mobilize his base. He’s traveling to different states and expressing support for candidates.
We’ll see to what extent Republicans—especially moderates and traditional party supporters—will agree that a Democratic senator in a given state is better than a rather problematic Republican representative. For now, I’m skeptical that the Democrats will manage to take control of the Senate. But they will almost certainly take the House of Representatives.
— How might the election results affect the Trump administration’s policies? Will Congress be able to increase support for Ukraine and tighten sanctions against Russia?
— That’s a complicated question. Let’s say the House of Representatives is controlled by Democrats, while the Senate remains Republican. What can members of Congress and senators do in that case?
First and foremost, they can influence the drafting and passage of the budget. Include in relevant legislation what they believe is right.
Second, appointments to government positions. Here, too, compromises can be found when the sitting administration has to take the other party’s wishes into account. However, the confirmation of such appointments depends primarily on the Senate. If the Republicans retain their majority there, they will still be able to carry out these decisions. Third, investigations. We will see dozens of investigations in the House of Representatives concerning corruption and violations of the law. These will, of course, attract attention. And Trump will be more focused on defending himself than on anything else.
But for a bill to become law, the Senate must also vote in favor of it. If, for example, the issue is aid to Ukraine, then after approval by both chambers, the president must sign the bill into law. If he vetoes it, overriding the veto requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers of Congress. It is possible that such support could be found on certain issues concerning Ukraine and Russia.
But no one has ruled out the possibility that Trump might ignore laws, as in the case of the ban on purchasing Russian energy resources. There is a law from 2022. To make an exception to its prohibitive provisions and authorize the purchase of diesel fuel, he would have had to explain to the senators why this was necessary for national security.
But Trump did not do that. He issued an order, and the Treasury Department effectively exempted Russian tankers and diesel fuel from the restrictions.
In any case, the main thing to expect is more chaos and confrontation between the executive and legislative branches. I have no particular illusions that Congress will be eager to pressure Trump to take a tougher stance toward Vladimir Putin, although theoretically it is possible. Given who Trump is and his tendency to ignore legislation, he is quite capable of continuing the same approach toward Putin that he is taking now.
— What will Trump do if the Republicans lose control of both chambers? To what extent will he be able to continue his course of action by bypassing Congress?
— Trump will still have the opportunity to continue his course of action. The limitations, as I’ve already said, relate to the budget, appointments, and investigations. Even if the Democrats launch impeachment proceedings, it will certainly get on his nerves. But ultimately, they won’t find the two-thirds majority in the Senate needed to remove him from office. Such a decision won’t be made.
Another issue is that Republicans are already thinking about the 2028 presidential election. They need to ensure their candidate’s victory somehow.
Naturally, they will be weighing how much Trump can help with that. Among the possible candidates, J.D. Vance is considered the most likely, although Trump has said he does not support him. He doesn’t support him today, but he might tomorrow. There’s also Marco Rubio and a few others.
That’s why the Republican Party’s own calculations are crucial: just how toxic Trump will be for the party in 2028. Based on this, Republicans will determine their positions. They’ll have to decide whether to align more closely with the Democrats on Russia or other issues in order to move back toward the center and secure greater support for their candidate than they have now. These elections should clearly demonstrate the extent to which the MAGA core—that is, the circle of those who support Trump no matter what he does—is eroding. It will also become clearer whether more reasonable and level-headed figures will emerge within the Republican Party itself who, in the run-up to 2028, will attempt to adjust the party’s course.
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