"With Trump, It'll Be A Whole Different Story."

Why did Zelenskyy change his tone when speaking with the U.S. president?

The American newspaper The New York Times reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has changed his tactics in his relations with U.S. President Donald Trump and has begun to publicly criticize his policy toward Russia.

What is behind this shift in rhetoric? The website Charter97.org spoke with Ukrainian political scientist and professor at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Petro Oleshchuk about this:

— I think there’s a combination of reasons here. First, the situation in the United States itself has changed somewhat. That is, the U.S. is approaching an election, and we’re seeing how Trump’s once-unquestioned authority is already beginning to waver. There’s a lot of criticism within the Republican Party—and I won’t even mention the Democrats. In other words, it’s highly likely that Trump will soon no longer be the sole decision-maker on key issues in the United States. Therefore, it’s probably not very wise to agree right now to comply with any of Trump’s demands.

And overall, Ukraine has an interest in seeing a new Congress elected in the U.S., one that will be easier to work with in the future. Furthermore, we see that the Trump administration itself, while clearly putting pressure on Ukraine by halting intelligence sharing and restricting Starlink’s operations, publicly denies all of this. No one knows who actually ordered the restrictions on Starlink. In other words, the fact exists, but no one wants to take responsibility for it. This suggests that even members of the Trump administration themselves view such decisions as unpopular.

Consequently, public opinion in the United States under these circumstances appears to be a valuable resource for Ukraine. In other words, making all these schemes public is clearly a tool for putting pressure on the Trump administration. To get it to change its policy, or at least revert to certain previous positions. Zelenskyy has also, even under the Joe Biden administration, repeatedly used these tools of direct diplomacy: appealing directly to the public, Congress, and the government.

As we recall, it was also difficult to push through certain decisions regarding the supply of specific weapons under Biden. It was necessary to engage the public to secure approval for the “Patriots,” the F-16s, and so on. In other words, I think that, on the one hand, this is an opportune moment given the stability of the Trump administration. And, on the other hand, the use of direct diplomacy is one of the most effective methods of influencing American policy—especially on the eve of the congressional elections.

— Republican senators are openly criticizing the White House’s stance. Could we be seeing a potential split within the Republican Party over the Ukraine issue ahead of the elections?

— Yes, but it’s not just about the Ukraine issue. There is widespread dissatisfaction with Trump’s policies and the direction in which he is leading the United States and the Republican Party.

There, for example, in Texas, a Democrat—James Talalico—might win for the first time in a long while. And what’s more, he has the support of the Bush family. This is very telling, since the Bushes are a historically influential Republican clan. If even they are supporting Democrats, then there’s definitely something wrong within the Republican Party.

You see, Trump is, as it were, trying in advance to find someone to blame for Ukraine preventing the Republicans from winning. But everyone understands that it was Trump’s own policies that led to this. People were willing to forgive the U.S. president a lot as long as he was winning. But if, for example, he loses the election, that will be a completely different story.

No one will be hanging on Trump’s every word or watching what he posts on social media anymore. He will most likely be criticized—and not just by Democrats, but by Republicans as well.

— If the Democrats gain a majority in one or both chambers of Congress, how will that affect aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia?

— It’s hard to say. You see, things will be quite complicated there, since sanctions, their enforcement, and aid still depend on the president. But what is Congress responsible for? Congress is the sole authority responsible for allocating the U.S. budget. In other words, Trump won’t get a single penny until he reaches some kind of compromise with a Democratic-controlled Congress.

In any case, some compromises will have to be made. That is, the Democrats might push through some form of aid in the budget bill. They may, once again, demand guarantees regarding Starlink or the arms supply program. This doesn’t guarantee support for Ukraine, but it will give pro-Ukrainian forces in the U.S. practical tools to influence Trump.

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