Cuba Has Reached The Point Of No Return

China and Russia will not be able to save the regime.

China is supplying Cuba with solar power systems, and Russia is trying to send oil, but this aid is not enough to pull the island out of its energy crisis. U.S. pressure is complicating fuel deliveries, prolonged power outages are occurring across the country, and restoring power requires resources that Havana does not have on its own. Even the support of these two allies is unlikely to resolve the systemic problems in Cuba’s energy sector, writes CEPA.

In August and September, Beijing provided Cuba with 10,000 solar power systems for rural areas, hospitals, and other public institutions. China is also involved in the construction of solar farms, including facilities with capacities of 85 and 200 MW. However, peak electricity consumption on the island reaches 3,000 MW. Even these new projects are not capable of bridging this gap.

Chinese aid makes it possible to supply electricity to individual institutions and communities, but it does not replace the large-scale fuel supplies needed to operate the power grid.

The situation with Russian oil is even less predictable. In late March, the tanker “Anatoly Kolodkin” delivered about 100,000 metric tons of crude oil to Cuba. However, another tanker, the “Universal,” which was carrying approximately 270,000 barrels of diesel, changed course at the end of May and never delivered its cargo.

Moscow fears a direct confrontation with Washington, so its assistance depends on political decisions. The growing closeness between Donald Trump and Putin could facilitate new shipments, but does not guarantee their regularity.

Ultimately, aid from Beijing and Moscow may buy Havana some time, but without stable fuel imports and the modernization of its energy system, Cuba will not be able to overcome chronic crisis.

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