What Will 2023 Be Like For Belarus?

The experts’ forecasts.

The Charter97.org website sums up the results of the outgoing year, and asks experts to share their forecasts for 2023.

Former Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy and Human Rights in the administration of George W. Bush, ex-director of Freedom House David Kramer, making a forecast for the next year, shared a recipe for overthrowing the Lukashenka regime:

— The way to end the Lukashenka regime is to support the Ukrainians. A Ukrainian victory over Russian invading forces would be a defeat for Russia and make it much more difficult, I think, for Putin to sustain the support for Lukashenka. So, if we want to see changes in Belarus, I think, right now the way to do that is to help Ukraine to win.

Leader of the European Belarus civil campaign Andrei Sannikov is sure that in 2023 we will see both a turning point in the war, and the collapse of dictatorial regimes:

— I expect a turning point next year. First, Ukraine has done the unbelievable. It is the Ukrainians today who are the locomotive of this final liberation of Eastern Europe from despotism, empire and dictatorships. Despite the surprisingly unfavorable situation for Ukraine, the multiple numerical superiority of Russian troops, the Ukrainians managed to withstand and even go on the counteroffensive. Thus, they reformatted the world agenda.

Anatol Kotau, a former employee of Lukashenka's administration, noted that the safety margin of Lukashenka's system without the help of the Russian Federation is six months. The situation in Belarus, according to the former official, depends on the events in Ukraine:

— We must not just wait, but do everything possible so that Ukraine wins as soon as possible. Build relations with Kyiv in order to understand in advance the format of the existence of Belarus in the region. After all, one way or another, the question of reparations and compensation for participation in the war will arise. The format in which Belarus will emerge from the war as a state controlled by the regime that entered the war depends on the military-diplomatic efforts, including the Belarusian civil society. There is no guilt of the Belarusian society for the war, but there is responsibility.

Political scientist Dzmitry Balkunets believes that next year the war may spread to the territory of Belarus:

— So far, there are no visible grounds for assuming that the war will end quickly. There is a big risk that hostilities will spread to the territory of Belarus.

Andrei Sharendа, coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign, spoke about the main events of 2022:

— With the beginning of the war, Belarusians rebelled against the Russian occupiers. Every step of the Russian army in Belarus became known. Any movement of equipment and aircraft of the invaders was shown by Belarusian partisans. Heroic Belarusians inside the country started a real rail war. Dozens of sabotage episodes on the railroad made it difficult for the Russian army to carry out logistics, and helped Ukraine survive in the most difficult period of the war.

Economist Leu Marholin predicts the deterioration of the economic situation in our country next year:

— You can expect inflation. Apparently, it will grow at the same rate in 2023. Shelves in the stores will gradually become emptier and emptier, and so on. This, unfortunately, is the inevitable outcome of the policy pursued by Belarus.

Leader of the Belarusian Workers’ Association Siarhei Dyleuski believes that Belarus may face food riots next year:

— I will say that the situation in the country continues to heat up. In fact, if not today then tomorrow Belarusian workers will start protesting. Wages are falling. You need to work more and they pay you less. There is simply nothing to live for. In any case, this will lead, if not to strikes for political reasons, then to food riots. We are all waiting for this.

Ex-deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and member of the Ukrainian delegation to PACE Boryslav Bereza, making a forecast for the next year, expressed the opinion that the ideal way out for Lukashenka from this situation is suicide:

— No one has forgotten that he helped Putin to kill Ukrainians, that Lukashenka helped and was involved in the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, and that he became the one who provided airfields for aircraft to take off, which then bombed and shelled Ukraine with missiles. He actually gave Putin both weapons and ammunition. Therefore, a separate fate awaits Lukashenka. Suicide is an ideal option for him, otherwise, he will rot somewhere for a long and tedious time.

Ukrainian deputy from the ruling Servant of the People party Bohdan Yaremenko believes that a serious crisis awaits the dictatorships of Putin and Lukashenka:

— For Belarus and Russia, one forecast can be made — I think that this will be a period of deepening of a large-scale, systematic and comprehensive crisis in Russian and Belarusian society. They are somewhat different, but it will be a crisis of totalitarian rule, of not being able to meet the needs of the people, of not being able to ensure the peaceful development of their countries. Perhaps these forms will be completely different, but the reason will be the same in Russia and Belarus.

Belarusian free Kupala theatre actor Aleh Harbuz expects Ukraine to win next year:

— I expect the empire to collapse. I don't know if it will fall apart or not, but it still has to take its place in history, not in the forefront, but somewhere much further.

I really want lustration to be carried out and communism would finally be condemned. Because if we had done this thirty years ago, we wouldn’t have what we have now. Then we will be able to create our country in which we can live.

Belarusian opposition politician, leader of the Razam solidarity movement Viachaslau Siuchyk calls to believe in a “Belarusian miracle”:

— I'll use the fact that we are talking with you on holidays. Belarusians celebrated holidays a thousand years ago, and in the most difficult times of totalitarianism. These are very bright days. I would like a Belarusian miracle to happen next year. So that a gang that has long been violating all laws, even contrary to what we see today, be liquidated and justice prevailed.

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