Nick And Mike: Sleeping Underground Waking Up In Belarus

And the junta is overcome by fears.

The past days were marked by some funny personnel changes.

The Blue-Fingered Guy dismissed some of his generals. It is noteworthy that among them are those who were responsible for planning and supplying parts of the Air Force and Air Defense. It seems that the situation when everything is fine on papers in the warehouse, but the reality is quite the opposite, can no longer be tolerated. Fear and awareness of the unreliability of the shield is evident. Under such conditions, the same Ziabrauka, and not only it, is officially becoming more vulnerable, writes the Nick and Mike Telegram channel.

The attractiveness of this goal is artificially increased. The situation when, as a result of a “preemptive” strike on a military facility in the territory controlled by the junta, the junta will have to respond and hasten its inevitable collapse, has become much closer. A real nightmare is the Crimea, where the infrastructure of the invasion is being systematically destroyed with filigree precision. Against this background, the cardboard army has no chance, no matter how you rearrange generals and colonels. On the contrary, the more permutations, the more confusion and chaos.

The changes also affected the civil sector. The most important schemer Siamashka, who was the ambassador of the junta in Russia, and dear friend Ivanou, who held the position of manager of affairs, fell out of the cage. Both for health reasons. The junta is middle-aged and exhausted personally. People from the inner circle are not made of steel either. Ivanou was replaced by Yura-Les, who languished in the post of Deputy Prime Minister on issues unusual for him. The position of a manager means personal trust, the Blue-Fingered Guy trusts his feeder only to close people.

Parkhomchyk went for promotion, which confirmed the thesis that loyalty is valued more than professionalism. The closeness to the family since the days of murky schemes with the sale of BelAZs through the Presidential Sports Club turned out to be stronger than the failures in the industry. The situation with import substitution from Motovelo (which we wrote about a very long time ago) is not unique, but systemic. The junta has destroyed its personnel potential, grown old and obsolete. It is unrealistic to find replacements for the players who drop out due to natural reasons. This trend will only gain momentum.

Personnel fragility is an additional factor that leads to victory. We wrote that the resistance is not limited to the groups that are heard. And the past week confirmed our thesis. A new group of hacktivists was marked by high-profile hacks in Belarus and Russia – this time the website of Belaruskali was attacked. As the activists themselves note, there are not only IT tools in store. The potential is hard to assess, but it's definitely there. Plus, it can turn out to be good competition for the Cyber Partisans (or maybe a partnership?). Who will be able to win trust and attract people to more systemic activities is still an open question.

So, in the bottom line, the junta is weakening due to internal reasons, the likelihood of transferring the war to the territory of the junta is increasing, and the sleeping underground is waking up in Belarus.

As for the Ukraine factor, we will return to it in more detail soon, as always.