Estonia Is Ready To Fight

Tallinn has reevaluated the possibility of war.

Estonia is preparing for a direct attack by the Russian Federation, revising its military doctrine — and these are very interesting changes. Along with a sharp increase in military spending to 5.4% of GDP, Tallinn has decided to change the nature of the weapons it purchases. Specifically, the country has signed contracts to purchase HIMARS systems, including missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers, and similar South Korean systems.

Estonian military planners have reevaluated the scenario of a potential war. Previously, they assumed that in the event of a Russian invasion, Estonian forces would mobilize quickly and wage a virtually guerrilla-style defense, wearing down Russian troops and inflicting heavy losses on them until the arrival of NATO’s main forces. However, the experience of the war in Ukraine and the realization that the alliance might not withstand a severe test have forced a change in this approach. Russia does not take losses into account.

Now Tallinn is shifting to a doctrine that aims to prevent the loss of any territory whatsoever: Estonia intends to fight for every scrap of land right at the border and, from the very first day of an invasion, to deliver powerful strikes against Russia hundreds of kilometers deep into its territory.

Estonian military intelligence fears a limited Russian operation against a border facility—primarily Narva. Capturing it would not make much sense if the goal were a full-scale invasion, but it could be used as a provocation aimed at dividing NATO. And whether the alliance will pass this test is a big question.

In Tallinn, they understand the situation perfectly well and are preparing seriously. There is only one caveat. A high-ranking Estonian intelligence official told reporters that the critical period during which the Baltic states must resolve their defense issues is the next one to four years. This may be an overly optimistic assessment.

Leonid Nevzlin, Telegram

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