AFU Colonel: Lukashenka Made Strategic Mistake

There is a decisive factor on which the entry of the Belarusian army into the war depends.

January 2023 was a record period for the number of Russian invaders liquidated in Ukraine. The figure has already exceeded 21 thousand. What factors influenced this?

Charter97.org website asked this and other questions to the coordinator of the Ukrainian group Information Resistance, military observer, reserve colonel Kostyantyn Mashovets.

— The growth in the number of liquidated occupiers was influenced by the Russian command at the tactical level. The way the Russian Federation uses human resources. The form of warfare determines the intensity of the use of manpower and leads to an increase or decrease in losses.

— The number of desertions, riots among the mobilized has increased. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to inflict powerful blows on clusters of mobilized newbies. How does this affect the morale of Russian soldiers?

— Obviously negatively. Strikes associated with the death and injury of a large number of personnel always negatively affect the morale of other military personnel.

However, in some areas, this state allows units of a part of the occupation group to carry out combat missions.

— If we talk about the Belarusian army and Lukashenka, what can affect his full-fledged entry into the war in Ukraine?

— If Lukashenka wants to accelerate his departure from power, then he should join the war. If he is a more or less adequate person, capable of tracking causal relationships, he will try to minimize his participation in the war.

Nevertheless, it is unlikely that some sober calculation and an attempt to weigh the consequences will be the decisive factors here. Rather, the decisive factor lies in the Kremlin. Mr. Lukashenka made a rather significant strategic mistake in his time, sharply increasing his degree of dependence on the Kremlin regime. He linked his fate with the fate of the current Russian regime. It was his choice, Lukashenka can only blame himself.

It is possible that Lukashenka has tools or arguments to the Kremlin regime about the need not to enter the war, but we do not know anything about this yet. We see full participation and assistance from the Lukashenka regime to the aggressor.

They are now conducting various exercises, but so far they do not directly concern Ukraine. The Russian Federation uses the air component from the territory of Belarus, inflicting strikes on Ukraine. It is unlikely that this will contribute to the prosperous future of Lukashenka.