Polish Ultimatum For Lukashenka: Will Warsaw Close Borders?

Expert opinions.

Poland is ready for the complete closure of traffic across the border with Belarus, said Deputy Foreign Minister Paweł Jabloński. On February 21, Warsaw closed the Kukuryki-Kazlovichy checkpoint for Belarusian trucks. Earlier, the Belarusian regime introduced restrictions for Polish carriers. Poland initially closed the crossing in Bobrowniki, reacting to a harsh sentence against Andrzej Poczobut, the journalist and one of the leaders of the Union of Poles in Belarus.

What do experts think about Warsaw's tough moves? The website Charter97.org collected the opinions of experts.

Political scientist Alexander Fridman believes that Poland gave a clear signal to Lukashenka:

— The verdict against Andrzej Poczobut is a frank spit on Poland, in connection with which appropriate decisions will be made.

The political scientist notes that the measures taken by Lithuania and Poland are painful for Lukashenka from two sides: economic and from the point of view of the mood of the population.

— When the borders are closed, it is unpleasant, including for people who are in Belarus: they understand that there may come a time when the borders will be completely closed, and it will be impossible to leave Belarus in a western direction.

Ruslan Shoshyn, a columnist for the Polish edition of Rzeczpospolita, believes that Lithuania and Latvia may join the restrictive actions at the border:

— The general political atmosphere caused by Russian aggression in Ukraine, and the complicity of the Lukashenka regime in this, will contribute to such decisions. The decisions that are catastrophic for the economy of Belarus, since the closure of the western border would mean complete dependence on the Russian and Chinese markets.

Leader of the Belarusian Association of Workers Siarhei Dyleuski sees Warsaw’s decision as an effective step:

— Another channel of trade attempts between Europe and Belarus bypassing sanctions is being blocked. Time will tell how this will affect ordinary citizens, but in terms of economic pressure on the regime, this is a fairly effective step.

Brest resident, activist of the European Belarus civil campaign Andrei Sharenda believes that Poland closes a loophole for the “Lukashenka's wallets”:

— Yes, Poland is hitting Lukashenka and his hangers-on powerfully. A blow to the “gray schemes” that work around the sanctions. A simple example: since the autumn of last year, Polish apples have been noticed in Belarusian stores. Sanctions work, and officially they cannot be delivered to Belarus. Nevertheless, they are on the shelves of shops under the guise of Belarusian ones, but these are clearly Polish fruits. A Brest resident will not confuse Polish apples with any other.

This suggests that “gray schemes” of fruit and vegetable smuggling are working. Some of them settle in Belarus, and most of them go to Russia. These schemes bring profit to the oligarchs who are under Lukashenka, his “wallets”. So they will be left without additional income of hundreds of millions of dollars a year.

Closing the borders will eliminate the smuggling of both apples and cigarettes. It's no secret that cigarette smuggling is a shadow business of “Lukashenka's wallets”. This is some very good support for a regime that will come to an end. Closing checkpoints, if not completely deprive them of their earnings, but a big piece for sure. This is a painful blow.

Anatoly Kotau, ex-employee of the Lukashenka administration, calls the closure of freight traffic from Warsaw an ultimatum:

— The experience of the Poles working with the Belarusian side during this time demonstrates that such tough moves work. The threat to block transit in 2021 stopped a massive migratory assault on the border.

Will it come to a complete closure of the border? The Nick and Mike Telegram channel believes that there are two options for Poland to take such a step:

— The border is ready to close. What the Polish side is doing now is a well-thought-out strategy of reaction and pressure, and not chaotic movements. The border will be closed completely if:

1. The junta does not stop in its “response measures” — reducing the number of consuls, artificial restrictions on the border;

2. The junta joins active hostilities (ground operation or new massive shelling).

The Polish Foreign Ministry's statement is the final warning.

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