Two main conclusions can be drawn from the explosion of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant.
Tonight, the Russians blew up the dam of the Kakhovka reservoir. The Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant is completely destroyed and cannot be restored.
In an interview with the Charter97.org website, Ukrainian military analyst, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petro Chernyk said that the Russian Federation had crossed another black line and reached the point of no return.
— Why did the Russians go to undermine the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant?
— It is incredibly difficult to understand the logic of the Russians. We try to look at them with civilized eyes, but this is a gross mistake.
In the military sense, the coefficient of benefit from undermining the hydroelectric power plant is practically zero. The Russians believe that by increasing the reach of the Dnipro, they will prevent Ukraine from forcing it during counter-offensive operations. This is a very serious mistake, because Russians think in terms of World War II.
They believe that we, Ukrainians, will form the Dnipro in the same way as the USSR did during the Dnipro operation, liberating Kyiv. But we will never do this. This is another confirmation of how corroded their understanding of reality is. This is the first moment.
Secondly, there is a very conspiracy theory, which has the right to exist, that in this way the FSB is again framing Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Why? Allegedly, Shoigu failed to protect the hydroelectric power plant, which is a strategic hub. All responsibility for the failed actions of the Russian army will be shifted to Shoigu.
In the context of what kind of crap the leader of the PMC “Wagner” Yevgeny Prigozhin Shoigu throws around, we can conclude that such a version has the right to exist.
Let me highlight one more point: there may be a long-term situation regarding the next round of nuclear blackmail at the Zaporizhzhia NPP. They are still silent, but a moment may come when they will say: “Look, the Ukrainians blew up the hydroelectric power station, there is no water, there is nothing to cool the reactor. It is necessary to make a buffer zone around the nuclear power plant within the boundaries of 30 km, which means that some forces and means may be freed up in order to move them to other directions that are dangerous for Russians.
No matter how strange it may sound, there is also a certain propaganda narrative here. They are losing. By and large, they lost in Bakhmut, despite the fact that they took it. But this does not mean their victory. They need new propaganda narratives to consolidate the population around Putin.
There may be many versions, but two main and, in my opinion, correct conclusions can be drawn from this.
— What conclusions? Please tell us more.
— The first serious conclusion is that they only contributed to the strengthening of the anti-Putin and anti-Russian coalition. The collective West will clearly come to the conclusion that there are new barbarians, the Huns, in the East. You can't agree on anything with them. Understanding how sensitive Western Europe is to environmental problems, this will only strengthen their position: either demolish the Putin regime itself, or even start to destroy Russia.
The second strategic conclusion: such actions are an indicator of weakness. A strong, well-armed, combat-ready army will never take such a step, knowing that, according to the Geneva Convention of the late 70s, such an action is exactly equal to an act of using weapons of mass destruction. They know about it, but they went for it anyway.
In the strategic plan, there is one more, most important conclusion: Moscow imperialism is in a state of agony. This is both good and bad news at the same time.
It is good that imperialism is dying, sooner or later it will die completely. The bad news is that a wounded venomous snake releases the strongest venom before dying, there can be a lot more of this venom.
They can proceed with more acts of terrorism. It's hard to say which ones. For example, they started talking about the dirty bomb again. The danger from the RF is not decreasing, but increasing. However, apart from nuclear weapons, they no longer have any trumps up their sleeves.
— In the Crimea, problems with water began, as well as in the occupied part of the Kherson region. Are the Russians not going to stay there if they leave these regions without water?
— Quite possible. This may be a preparatory stage for a “goodwill gesture”. The version that they have already decided to leave, but in a weak rage they can do nothing but destroy, also has the right to life.
Another important detail of the absurdity of this step is that their first advanced positions in the left-bank Kherson region have already been flooded. They will definitely have to move to other positions, as well as push back long-range artillery, and these are some kind of concessions for Kherson. It turns out that the frequency of attacks on Kherson will change.
Again, they are in agony, which is very good, but we must understand that it can be long and bloody.
— It turns out that the Russians did more harm to themselves, and not to Ukraine?
— Definitely. It is not that they harmed themselves, they crossed another black line and a point of no return in terms of at least some negotiability of their regime with some political forces in Europe. From time to time slogans sound there, starting from Macron and ending with Scholz, they say, we need to look for some common points. So, they themselves cover these common points with greasy black dirty paint.