Fatal Step For Lukashenka

Is there a possibility of Belarus' direct entry into the war?

The threat of direct entry of the Armed Forces of Belarus into the war on the side of the Russians has been hanging over the north of Ukraine since February 24, 2022, since the beginning of the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. The possibility of a repeated ground attack on Kyiv from the Belarusian side is not ruled out completely, and this is one of the scenarios that the Ukrainian side has to consider all the time. At the same time, the Belarusian propaganda is trying to promote the image of "powerful Armed Forces of Belarus", which seem to be ready to fight almost the entire eastern flank of NATO and to break through the Suvalki gap, which separates the territory of Belarus from Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation.

The State Border Committee of Belarus recently stated that it had recorded an increase in the grouping of the Ukrainian military on the border, in particular, in the area of responsibility of the Zhytomyr border detachment, allegedly noticed an increase in the grouping of Ukrainian armed formations, in particular, special operations forces and special units of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine. Therefore, they say, the border service of the Republic of Belarus on the border with Ukraine is working in an intensified mode, and warns that all provocations, which by the way have never happened on the Belarusian border, will be immediately suppressed.

The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine immediately reacted to such a statement, saying that Kyiv is defending and will continue to defend its territories from attacks, contrary to Belarus, which, despite all the assurances of the Ukrainian side, fully supported Russia in the unprovoked war, and on February 24, 2022 committed the main provocation, allowing Russian troops to enter Ukraine from its territory. Therefore, as long as Belarus is backing the Kremlin's criminal actions, this direction remains threatening for Ukraine.

Obviously, the statement of the Belarusian border guards is merely a banal justification for Belarus to launch on June 21 this year a surprise inspection of the readiness of formations and military units of the armed forces to perform their tasks. Military units and subunits of operational commands, special operations forces, missile troops and artillery, air force and air defence forces are taking part in the inspection. The test is being carried out at firing ranges and sites in Brest and Homel regions, i.e. the territories bordering Ukraine. At the same time, Minsk has already accused Ukraine of concentrating troops on the border, having started checking nuclear weapons carriers on May 7 this year. On June 11, together with Russia, Belarus started the second stage of this inspection, practising preparations for a joint nuclear strike. Then Lukashenka said that Belarus did not want to wage war and did not want a foreign land, but was preparing for war. In addition, Belarus is preparing for the July exercises of territorial defence troops. Moreover, mobilisation exercises will be held there at the end of July.

The modern armed forces of the Republic of Belarus have inherited the hardware and structure of the Belarusian Military District in the times of the USSR. In peacetime conditions, the Belarusian army has 75 thousand soldiers. There are 48 thousand Belarusian servicemen in combat units, plus civilian positions. 60% of the Belarusian army are contract soldiers. The basis of the current Belarusian army is four mechanised brigades, two brigades of paratroopers, as well as the Special Operations Forces.

In addition, the Belarusian Armed Forces have two artillery brigades, four anti-aircraft missile brigades and three anti-aircraft missile regiments, one missile and one rocket-artillery brigade. Aviation is concentrated at three main air bases (Baranavichy, Lida and Machulishchy) and is united in one structure with air defence, anti-aircraft, missile and radio-technical troops. Belarus also has its own territorial defence. Formally, the country has 1,276 tanks, but the vast majority of them are in conservation. Only 446 Soviet-made T-72B and modernised T-72B3 tanks are in service. Echelons of deconsecrated Belarusian tanks were seen being shipped to Russia. In addition to tanks, the mechanised units are equipped with infantry fighting vehicles, developed in the USSR since the 1970s. There are several hundred of them. Dozens of such vehicles (BMP-2) were sent to the Russians in 2022.

The most famous modern development of the Belarusian defence industry is an analogue of HIMARS - the Polonez-M multiple launch rocket system with a range of up to 300 km, created in cooperation with China. It uses Chinese A200 and A300 missiles. The armed forces have 6 such complexes. The Belarusian army has received modern S-400 missile defence systems, Iskander-M ballistic missiles, as well as tactical nuclear weapons from Russia over the past two years. Iskander-M missile systems, as well as modernised Su-25 attack planes, can be carriers of nuclear weapons. "Iskander-M", whose range reaches 500 km, carry the threat of using tactical nuclear weapons not only to neighbouring Poland and the Baltic states, but also to Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and most of Ukraine.

Nuclear weapons in Belarus with their respective carriers is a geopolitical challenge that Russia is using. By doing so, Moscow has violated several basic treaties on non-proliferation of missiles of a certain range. However, the question is whether the Belarusian dictator will dare to fulfil Moscow's instruction and start military action against Ukraine. Official Minsk does not need this at all, but the Kremlin is constantly blackmailing Lukashenka through its numerous lobbies in Belarus. A step towards war could be fatal for official Minsk, and it would make Ukraine's position much more difficult. Therefore, is there a possibility of Belarus' direct entry into the war? Yes, there is a possibility. That's why Ukraine keeps along the border the relevant forces of restraining, but in no way attacking.

Oleksandr Levchenko, "Obozrevatel"