Political Analyst: Erdogan Knows Putin Is Weak
7- 21.11.2025, 20:38
- 15,078
What's behind the new round of escalation between Russia and Turkey.
Turkey refused to let a Russian airliner with 600 passengers into Istanbul Why did the head of Turkey Rezhdep Tayyip Erdogan take such a step?
That's what Charter97.org talked to Ukrainian political scientist, professor of Kyiv Taras Shevchenko National University Petr Oleshchuk:
- I understand that this is from Turkey's side a symmetrical response to the problems with the Turkish ferry in Russia. Erdogan habitually acts in a forceful manner in response to any action on the part of the Russian Federation, that is, using countermeasures. This is a long-standing strategy that works quite well in the case of Turkey.
On the one hand, we formally call each other friends, partners and trade. But in case of any attempts of any pressure - immediately counter-pressure in response.
- Should we expect aggravation of the conflict between Turkey and the Russian Federation? This is, in principle, a familiar situation for them. Although there may indeed be some escalation. They will try to put pressure on Turkey in response. But Russia simply does not have the capabilities to exert such pressure now. So, most likely, they will put the brakes on and somehow informally try to resolve this issue.
- As you mentioned, the other day a Russian drone attacked a Turkish ship on the border between Romania and Ukraine. How could this turn out for Putin after all?"
- It was a vessel related to gas transportation. We see a reflection of the complex relationship between Turkey and Russia. If we talk about the relationship between Putin and Erdogan in general, Putin is a weak man. He only likes to play macho. And, in principle, it works. But as soon as Putin encounters someone who is ready to stand up to his ponts, he immediately blends in and tries not to provoke him.
It is obvious that Putin respects Erdogan. As much as he can, in principle, respect someone. Because Putin is a psychopath. He is not the kind of person who feels the emotions that other people are accustomed to. He sees that he controls the situation in the country and has the appropriate military and other power resources. That's why he tries not to clash with Erdogan. Starting from the Russian airplane and ending with the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria.
But since Putin feels the power behind Erdogan, he tries not to go into conflict with him. By the way, Lukashenko is just a vassal for Putin. And an unreliable one at that. Prone to various intrigues. I think that Putin has repeatedly thought that it would be good to get rid of him somewhere. But at this stage he has come to terms with his existence, but he is hardly sympathetic to him. In general, Putin tends to view all the leaders of the post-Soviet states as vassals. This is an imperial attitude.
In his system of coordinates, as with any Russian leader: either submission or supremacy. Partnership is something very hard for them. That is, you are either afraid of someone, or someone is afraid of you.
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