"Caracas In Three Hours" And The Lukashenko Collision

Maduro will reveal savory details of his cooperation with his "Minsk friend" during interrogations.

Alexander Lukashenko, after some thought, categorically disapproved the "act of American aggression against Venezuela". His conflict is understandable. On the one hand, kindred spirits tell him to at least verbally support the friendly regime in Caracas, on the other hand - it is not a good idea to throw a stone at Donald Trump, with whom a "grand bargain" is to be realized.

Trump showed with the strike on Venezuela that he is a specific peacemaker. Yes, the current head of the White House trumps the fact that he allegedly stopped eight or how many wars, scolds his predecessor Joe Biden, claiming that under him, Trump, the war between Russia and Ukraine would not have started. Finally, he is a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize.

But at the same time he openly professes the right of the strong, has made attempts on Greenland and Canada, and now he has decided to deal with his unwanted neighbor Nicolas Maduro.

The air defense system created with the help of Belarus did not help

Trump said Maduro and his wife were captured and taken out of the country. The operation was carried out by the elite Delta Force special forces, according to media reports. There were explosions in the capital and elsewhere. A number of military installations appear to have been hit. U.S. aircraft dominated the air. As Russian Z-bloggers grimly joked, it turned out to be "Caracas in three hours." This is how one should conduct an air defense system.

It is worth remembering that Belarus once helped Venezuela to create a unified system of air defense and electronic warfare. But now there is an impression that this system was inactive. Either the Americans instantly suppressed it, or the local soldiers did not dare to shoot down the U.S. helicopters. Or perhaps, as Russian "war correspondents" suggest, they were simply bribed.

Formally, the United States is punishing the Maduro regime for drug trafficking. But the main reason is oil.

Venezuela has almost 20% of the world's proven reserves of this strategic raw material (for comparison: in Russia - 5%). In 2007, the government of Ugo Chavez, who led the country before Maduro, expropriated the assets of foreign oil companies that refused to give a controlling stake in PDVSA, Venezuela's state-owned oil and gas company.

This is apparently what Trump had in mind when he said in December, "Remember, they took away all our energy rights. They took all of our oil just recently, and we want it back. But they took it away. They took it illegally."

In addition, Venezuela is rich in other minerals, including rare earth metals, in which the current U.S. president has a special interest.

The desire to take control of Maduro's fiefdom fits squarely within the U.S. national security strategy signed by Trump in December. This document, which is called a new version of the Monroe Doctrine, speaks, in particular, about the intention of the United States to rule the Western Hemisphere.

It should be noted that Russian and Chinese interests are clearly present in Venezuela. So this attack can also be interpreted as a signal to Beijing and Moscow to be careful.

However, some experts believe that there may be a deal. That is, Trump is allowed to quietly cushion Venezuela, and he makes a concession to the Chinese regarding Taiwan and will put more pressure on Kiev to please the Kremlin.

The Minsk airfield seems to be no longer relevant

After Trump sensationally called Lukashenko last August, Lukashenko began to pretend that he is now on good terms with his friend Donald. And even began to give him advice in absentia.

For example, in December, through Trump's special envoy to Belarus John Cole, Lukashenko convinced the US leadership that in case of an invasion of Venezuela, "there will be a second Vietnam," "so you don't need to fight there, you can negotiate there."

As we can see, the reckless Donald did not listen to friendly advice. And, unlike Vladimir Putin, he conducted his "SWO" filigree.

It is also worth remembering that Venezuela's ambassador to Russia visited Lukashenko twice at the end of last year. The second time - "after agreeing on some problems, issues" with Maduro. Many then assumed that the latter was looking for a reserve airfield.

In December, in an interview with the American TV company "Newsmax" (conducted, incidentally, by Cole's wife - journalist Greta Conway van Susteren), Lukashenko responded to an obviously non-random question whether Belarus was ready to receive Maduro in case of his resignation in the following way: "If he wished to come to Belarus, the doors are open for him here. But this has never, I sincerely tell you, never been discussed. Maduro is not the kind of person who will drop everything and leave, run away. <�...> This is a heroic man."

As you can see, the States did not ask the heroic man if he wants to leave. Social networks and the media are circulating a photo (though it is not yet known whether it is authentic) in which he is being led under the arms of two Americans in camouflage. U.S. Attorney General Pamela Bondi said that Maduro and his wife, who are accused of narco-terrorism, will soon "face the full wrath of American justice on U.S. soil in American courts."

So the trip of friend Nicolas to Minsk is apparently canceled.

Trump is best not to be trifled with

What is the bottom line of this story for Belarus? No direct threat to both Lukashenko and his "grand bargain" with Washington, I think. Trump doesn't think it's shameful to deal with dictators. And he turned against Maduro not because he usurped power, but purely because he got in the way.

And it is unlikely that the master of the White House will learn that the distant ruler of the swamp condemned the aggression. And even if Trump is informed, he will most likely not pay much attention to it.

To attack Belarus is of no use to the States, given all the adventurism of their current leadership. And it is not only because it is far away, and besides, Lukashenko's regime is covered by Russia's nuclear shield. There is simply no reason for it.

Belarus produces little oil, they do not have enough. Oh, stop, a lot of potassium salt! And Lukashenko recently boasted that he offered the Americans to buy one of the potash assets - Nedra Nizhyn - for $3 billion.

It's worth remembering that the Belarusian ruler has repeatedly teased Russian capital with the family silver, but then turned the corner (except that Beltransgaz eventually gave in). Trump's showdown with Venezuela shows that this American partner is better not to be led around by the nose. And not only in the matter of potash assets.

It is also recalled how in 2024, the then Prime Minister of Belarus Roman Golovchenko said after a visit to Venezuela that it was necessary not only to preserve, but also to develop the "legacy" of Lukashenko and Chavez. Now the states have seized on Maduro's chavistas and struck at his predecessor's mausoleum. It was hardly a mistake - rather, Washington is sending a message that Chavism is finished.

Does this mean that Belarus's projects in Venezuela can be given up? Here I would not be in a hurry. For Trump money does not smell, and if he considers that cooperation with Minsk in this country is profitable, he may well give the go-ahead.

But who knows: what if Maduro during interrogation tells about such piquant details of his cooperation with his friend from Minsk, which the head of the White House will not like at all?

In principle, the news from Venezuela is unlikely to please the ruler of Belarus. It is a story that in a critical moment "loyal allies" can get away with "deep concern", or even help to throw out an annoying client.

It is also a story that "loyal associates", the fattened Praetorian Guard, can mercilessly dump a patron.

And in general, the mournful list of Lukashenko's friends who willingly said goodbye to the autocrat's chair (or even to their lives) is inexorably growing: Milosevic, Hussein, Gaddafi, Assad, and now Maduro. And that's why even with "Oreshnik" in position, some, one must think, are not too cozy.

Alexander Klaskovsky, "Pozirk".

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