Oil Prices Fell After Trump's Statement On A "Ceasefire"
- 12.10.2026, 10:59
However, attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and war in the Middle East continue to pose risks of rising prices.
Oil Prices Fell After Trump's Statement on a "Ceasefire"
But attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and the war in the Middle East continue to pose risks to the market.
Oil prices fell on Monday, October 12, amid expectations of increased Russian crude supplies after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an agreement between Ukraine and Russia to cease attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure. This statement came after the conclusion of an agreement on the supply of Russian diesel fuel.
According to Reuters, Brent crude oil futures fell by $1.54, or 1.47%, to $103.18 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $90.31 per barrel, down $1.54, or 1.68%.
On October 9, Trump stated that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel fuel—equivalent to 2.25 million barrels—to the U.S. and other countries’ markets, another 500,000 metric tons in November, and subsequently an additional 1 million metric tons. According to forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global diesel consumption stands at about 29 million barrels per day.
On October 11, Trump also unexpectedly announced that Kyiv and Moscow had agreed to an energy truce. At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that he is still awaiting details of this agreement, while Russia has not commented on the U.S. leader’s statement.
These reports have somewhat eased the immediate pressure on energy supplies, noted KCM Trade’s chief analyst Tim Woterer.
“However, questions remain regarding the feasibility and duration of such a truce. Without clearer evidence that it will actually take effect, the extent of the price decline is likely to remain limited,” he added.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that all member countries should assess the need to release additional diesel fuel reserves. He also urged countries that have not yet fully met their commitments to supply fuel to the market to expedite the remaining deliveries, particularly of diesel fuel.
Meanwhile, the conflict in the Middle East continues to keep the price of Brent crude above $100 per barrel.
Yemeni Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack on Riyadh International Airport on October 10, which killed 13 people and injured more than 300. At that time, Trump stated that the U.S. was considering joining Saudi strikes against the Houthis. This conflict is a continuation of the war with Iran that the U.S. and Israel began in February.
In addition, since the beginning of the month, there have been reports of new attacks on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This poses a threat to the resumption of oil exports from the Middle East, which was observed in September.
Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Daan Struiven, have raised their December Brent crude oil price forecast to $90 per barrel from the previous $85.
“We maintain our base case forecast that further adjustments to oil supplies from the Middle East will ultimately lead to lower prices. At the same time, a possible new escalation of the conflict continues to pose significant risks of rising oil prices,” the analysts noted.
They also forecast that in December 2026, the average price of WTI will be $81 per barrel, and in 2027, $73. According to the analysts, U.S. crude is currently unusually cheap compared to Brent due to the high cost of transporting oil from the U.S. to Europe.
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