Provocation In Belarus

The scenario is multi-vector in nature.

The special services of the occupying country are preparing a large-scale provocation with elements of the "false flag" operation in the territory of Belarus in order to accuse Ukraine of sabotage on the territory of this country.

According to the analytical department of Right Cause, Russian special services are preparing a provocation with strikes on oil refineries and warehouses with fuel and lubricants in the territory of the Republic of Belarus. At the same time, the responsibility for such actions may be assigned to the Defense Forces of Ukraine, in particular, to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

In parallel, the information support of this provocation of the Russian special services is being prepared. In particular, this week a video of the interrogation of a captured soldier of the special unit of the Defense Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense may be made public. The latter, under pressure, will testify about the collection of intelligence data by the Ukrainian intelligence about the places of accumulation of fuel and lubricants warehouses, routes of crude oil supply for processing at key Belarusian enterprises and schedules of shipment of products, primarily for the needs of the occupying country.

In addition, according to the analytical department of "Right Cause," at the planned press conference, the Ukrainian prisoner is expected to voice information about the collection of information by the electronic intelligence units of the MOU GUR about the conversations of Belarusian aviadis. This decision resulted from the release of 52 political prisoners by Belarus in September 2025. Restrictions were also lifted from certain airplanes, including Alexander Lukashenko's flight.

The scenario has a multi-vector nature and combines both an information and psychological operation, as well as possible sabotage actions at critical infrastructure enterprises of the Republic of Belarus. A complex operation of the Russian security services "under a foreign flag" is being prepared.

In case of realization of such a scenario, the responsibility will lie with the Russian security services. Such actions of the Russian security services are an attempt to accuse Ukraine of destabilizing the internal situation on the territory of the Republic of Belarus and have signs of active operations in the information field in order to form an anti-Ukrainian information agenda.

I recall that the Russian security services have already planned such operations, in particular, they wanted to blow up the building where the captured "Azovites" were to be tried. After the information was made public by the analytical department of the State Intelligence Committee "Right Cause" managed to thwart the Russians' plans. The trial did not take place.

In addition, the information about the intentions of the enemy's special services made it impossible to hold the planned press conference with the captured soldiers of the 8th Special Forces Regiment of the SDF.

Dmitry Snegirev, "Focus"

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