Where Else Are The Emiratis Going To Leave From?

Such a move was long overdue.

The Union of the Seven Principalities of the Arabian Peninsula is uncomfortable with the restrictions imposed on its oil production by its obligations to the oil cartel and has repeatedly raised the issue of increased production quotas at OPEC meetings, threatening to leave the organization. For some time, the UAE managed to smooth out tensions with its partners, but the situation on the oil market - and military and political events in the Persian Gulf region - accelerated the split.

We have written repeatedly about the fact that changes in OPEC+ are overdue. Production containment and quotas had effectively ceased to influence oil prices. Overproduction around the world created a constant "overhang" of supply over demand, and self-restrictions imposed by a group of oil-producing countries did not have the desired effect. There was no point in such measures, especially since some participants - such as Russia - did not contribute to these self-restraints, producing as much oil as they wanted or could. And another prominent OPEC member, Venezuela, had recently become a puppet of the United States in terms of oil production.

A plan to reorganize the cartel was underway, and if implemented, the entire OPEC strategy was to be determined only by those members with a sustainable spare capacity to rapidly increase production, not by the entire group of countries. Saudi Arabia claimed the first role in this.

The Emirates do not want to recognize the Saudis' hegemony in OPEC. The conflict between these states sporadically turns, for example, into armed clashes in Yemen, where the UAE and Saudi Arabia are on the sides of warring groups. And the appearance of the Saudis' military contingent of Pakistan did not contribute to the elimination of military-political contradictions.

And when one of the OPEC members, Iran, began firing missiles and drones at oil facilities of its cartel partners and, in addition, blocked the exit of tankers from the Persian Gulf, the patience of the Emirates came to an end.

In contrast to most other Arab countries in the region, the UAE is building cooperative relations with Israel - and, along with Bahrain and Morocco, has signed the so-called "Abraham Accords" with the Jewish state. Moreover, Israel is helping the Emiratis to repel Iranian air attacks - for the first time in its history it has deployed technologically advanced and effective air defense systems outside the country.

It can be expected that the divergence of the Emiratis' political line from that of their Arabian Peninsula neighbors will lead to a further radical revision of the UAE's position.

Pragmatists in the country's leadership cannot but see the complete impotence of international organizations with regard to military conflicts and political strife in the region. If the line of independence continues, the UAE may withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (in addition to the UAE, it includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman), and then even from the Arab League (all 18 Arab countries, Palestine, as well as Djibouti, Somalia, and the Comoros). These offices have long shown complete impotence in solving specific problems.

The next step could be the withdrawal from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC, 57 member countries), the former Organization of the Islamic Conference, where, apart from empty debates, there is no real cooperation, much less assistance in solving the problems of OIC members.

This would be a real shock to the Islamic world. However, signs of a change in the views of the Emirati leadership on the role of Islam in the modern era are already evident. In January, the UAE banned its citizens from studying at British universities, stripping them of their scholarships. The reason? Young people return from Cambridge and Oxford propagandized by radical Islamic figures and even members of terrorist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Emiratis are clearly not going the way of terrorists. No one is going to give up the external attributes, habits, prejudices and traditions of the Muslim community. But the ideology of terror against non-Muslim Kafirs is not becoming the main political direction of the UAE residents.

They have clearly decided to adopt the basic civilizational values of the Western world and change their circle of friends...

Mikhail Krutikhin, The Moscow Times

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