The Russian Government Has Lowered Its Forecast For The Growth Of Russians' Incomes To Almost Zero
2- 18.05.2026, 20:23
Russians will be forced to practically freeze spending on the purchase of goods and services.
Russian citizens in 2026 will face an almost complete halt in the growth of real incomes and will be forced to virtually freeze spending on the purchase of goods and services, according to the updated macro forecast, which was published by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
In the base scenario of the Ministry of Economic Development this year real disposable income of Russians will add only 0.8% - three times less than the agency expected six months ago (2.1%), and 9 times less than last year's growth (Rosstat estimated it at 7.4%), reports The Moscow Times.
In the conservative scenario, which includes a drop in oil prices to $50 and a slowdown in the global economy due to the war in Iran, income growth would be only 0.5%.
Consumers who have already switched on austerity mode will remain in it at least until the end of the year, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development: the growth of retail trade turnover, according to its estimates, will slow down to 0.8% - that is, 5 times compared to last year (4.1%). In the conservative scenario, the Ministry of Economic Development assumes a decline in retail sales by 0.4% - the first since 2022.
The Ministry of Economic Development was forced to lower its forecasts for the growth of household incomes and, consequently, private consumption, due to a general decline in economic forecasts, which, in turn, is associated with the deterioration of prerequisites for oil production and exports, as well as with the tight policy of the Central Bank, says economist Dmitry Polevoy.
The new forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development expects GDP growth of only 0.4%, which is three times lower than last year's result, and 10 times less than the rate at which the economy grew in 2023-24. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's oil production will fall to a 17-year low this year, its exports will be 17 million tons less than expected, and the decline in investment will accelerate threefold - from 0.5% last year to 1.5%.
Official statistics already record a slowdown in the growth of incomes of citizens, draws the attention of Finam economist Olga Belenkaya: in the first quarter they added only 1.5% year-on-year against 5.8% a quarter earlier and 7.1% for the same period in 2025. Consumer sentiment, which is measured monthly in surveys by the Central Bank of Russia, has fallen to its lowest level since the fall-2022 mobilization. Probably, the VAT increase and high interest rates on loans are having an impact, Belenkaya argues.
In Russia "there are certain problems with the solvency of the population," notes economist Andrei Barkhota: "It has really seriously decreased. People have been saving money since about the middle of last year. Moreover, this is recorded by Rosstat and independent sociological studies conducted in Russia.
The main reason is the rise in food prices, says the expert: the share of food expenses in the consumer basket has reached 39%, and this is the maximum since 2008. "This puts a lot of pressure on consumer sentiment, on purchasing power and forces the majority of buyers to turn to the format of those stores that imply a greater discount and are generally more accessible," notes Barkhota.
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