Taras Zagorodny: Russia Is Heading For A Rapid Collapse

The Russian economy is already repeating the path of the Soviet Union.

A number of Western publications write about a marked change in the war against Ukraine: Russia is increasingly losing the initiative, and its economy is entering a systemic crisis. Against this background, Vladimir Putin's statements about "ending the war" look not like a strength of the Kremlin, but a sign of growing pressure.

Can we say that irreversible processes have begun in the Russian economy? How is this already affecting Russia's position on the frontline?

About this, Charter97.org spoke to Ukrainian political technologist, managing partner of the National Anti-Crisis Group Taras Zagorodniy:

- First: Putin is not going to stop anything. As long as he is in power, he will fight.

- He has spoken about "ending the war" to both domestic and foreign audiences, including Donald Trump. He can't stop the war, including for economic reasons.

If Russia stops the war now and abruptly stops funding the government defense order, the collapse will be like the 90s. The Soviet Union also collapsed because there was no money to maintain a huge military machine. And Russia has already actually switched to financing military expenditures in amounts larger than in the Soviet Union.

At the same time, the Soviet Union was not at war, was not under such sanctions, it still had markets in Europe, give or take. Now Russians do not have all this categorically.

If Russia stops now, it will go into a rapid collapse. But it is already heading for collapse. Look at the dynamics. The Kremlin officially admits: in the first quarter, the budget deficit is 6 trillion rubles. While they had planned 3.5 trillion rubles for the entire year. That is, in fact, the federal budget deficit in the first quarter was already larger than the deficit they had planned for the entire year.

The short-term surge in oil prices is not bringing them any additional income. The first figures are about 250 billion rubles. With a budget deficit of trillions of rubles, this is just pennies, it does not save them in any way.

In addition, their economy is collapsing in civilian industries: coal, metallurgical, small business is collapsing, budget revenues in these areas are falling.

Ukraine is not stopping. We are talking not only about the front, but also about strikes deep into Russia, which they did not expect at all. Now there is the destruction of the oil and gas infrastructure, which is the supporting structure not only of the economy, but of the Russian state itself. Without oil they collapse, their economic system simply disintegrates. As it was in the Soviet Union: the money stops flowing, but the costs remain huge.

So the end of the war is possible either after Putin's death or after his removal from power amid the collapse of the Russian economy. If everything goes on at this pace, and Ukraine only intensifies its strikes on Russia, then according to the optimistic scenario everything may come together at one point already this fall.

Remember how Gennady Zyuganov speaked in panic: they say that in the fall we may have 1917. He feels it and understands it, because there is a really explosive situation for Russia. They have elections on September 20, and housing and utility rates are scheduled to rise on October 1.

Ukraine began shelling Russian refineries as early as May. Last year, such strikes began sometime in July. That is, Russia is now entering the peak of consumption and reaping with a shortage of petroleum products.

Plus Ukraine is hitting some very interesting points. There were two strikes - on Perm and on Ufa. Open a map: these are the two key oil pumping points that allow oil to be moved from Western Siberia. These are hub points.

Ukraine is already freely doing this. The Ryazan refinery we saw today as well. Note: if a year ago something was flying in, but the strikes were weaker, now look how everything is burning.

It is obvious that Ukraine is getting stronger. Obviously the explosive charges are getting bigger. Look at how capitally everything is being demolished. Tuapse, it's probably already hard to talk about the existence of the refinery as a full-fledged facility.

Ukraine is getting more and more powerful. And Ukraine is not going to stop.

- Could Putin, because of the problems in the economy, be forced to stop the war and negotiate soon?

- Putin will not stop the war. Because he has a public position: Ukraine must sign these "Istanbul" agreements. That is, to reduce the army to 80 thousand, the National Guard - to 40 thousand, not to have heavy weapons with a range of more than 40 kilometers, to recognize Crimea and Donbass as Russian.

His second position: truce and ceasefire is possible only after Ukraine leaves all four regions. That is, it should give them Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk and Kherson regions and give them up. This is his public position.

In Russia, politics works like this: the tsar has spoken - and the tsar can no longer change his position. Because if he changes it, he will lose both political power and his life. So he will fight until the end - until he dies or until he is demolished.

- Many analysts point to the similarity of the situation with 1917. What unexpected events could happen for the Kremlin because of economic and military problems?"

- Again, it all depends on Ukraine. Look, Russia's oil production is falling. Because they have nowhere to put this oil: there is no refining and no possibility to export it normally.

The main task of Ukraine for this summer season is to cause maximum damage to the oil industry. Oil is everything.

Petrochemicals are also getting hit. You saw the hit on the Astrakhan gas processing plant. It produces not only motor fuel, but also sulfur. And that means sulfuric acid, explosives production, and so on.

What else is unexpectedly already happening for Russians? You mentioned the front. Ukraine is starting to use drones to control the land route to Crimea. There was a report from Azov. Before that, they said they control Mariupol as well.

What does this mean? That now the entire Zaporizhzhya grouping finds itself under a supply issue. Drones are already starting to appear over Crimea. This means that Crimea too could be cut off from supply and come under Ukrainian control. Ukraine is leading the situation to the collapse of this grouping because the Russians simply won't be able to maintain it.

And a lot of other things are happening that the Russians certainly didn't expect. Ukraine is building up these capabilities.

The Ukrainian armed forces have many surprises for the Russians. Very many things are now being scaled up. So we must understand: all of this will only escalate.

For the Russians, there are likely to be many unpleasant surprises already this summer. Ukraine's missile program is reaching a new level.

Did you see the arrival in Cheboksary? It was an important military undertaking, and it was no longer a drone. A thousand kilometers is a serious application on the part of Ukraine. And that's only part of what's going on right now. Ukraine is leading everything to Russia's disadvantage.

Even if we talk about the economy, they are also repeating the history of the Soviet Union. You've seen reports that the Russian banking system already recognizes that there is a crisis. Elvira Nabiullina said that the source of investment will become the deposits of the population. This is already 1990 of the Soviet Union, when they took all the money out of the banks.

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