SBU General: China Will Take Over Russia Without Firing A Single Shot

Beijing is already preparing to take advantage of Russia's defeat and weakened position.

The war and sanctions have sharply increased Russia's dependence on China. According to The Wall Street Journal, Beijing is already forging ties with the Russian elite and preparing for a possible change in power after Putin.

What kind of support is China currently providing to Putin in the war against Ukraine? Could Russia continue the war without China’s help? The website Charter97.org discussed this with Major General (ret.) of the SBU Viktor Yagun:

— China formally avoids large-scale shipments of finished weapons, but it provides Russia with critically important logistical support. This includes purchases of Russian oil and gas, as well as supplies of machine tools, microelectronics, optics, engines, drone components, and chemical raw materials—along with assistance in circumventing financial restrictions. This is precisely why NATO officially refers to China as a “decisive factor” that allows Russia to continue the war.

Without China, Russia would not cease hostilities immediately: it still has its own military-industrial complex, mobilization resources, and support from North Korea and Iran. However, waging war on the current scale and at the current pace would be practically impossible. Production of missiles, drones, and other equipment would plummet, and Western sanctions would finally begin to take full effect. China today is not Russia’s ally, but rather its economic and technological lifeline.

— China is already establishing contacts with the Russian elite. Who might Beijing bet on, and whom would it like to see as Putin’s successor?

— It’s important to clarify: The Wall Street Journal article indicates that China is working with the future Russian elite, but it does not prove that Beijing has already chosen a specific successor. The Chinese typically do not bet on just one person. They simultaneously build ties with security officials, technocrats, heads of state-owned corporations, and representatives of influential families.

Analytically, this circle could include Mikhail Mishustin, Alexei Dyumin, Dmitry Patrushev, and Sergey Kirienko. Not because Beijing has already designated any of them as the “heir,” but because they embody the regime’s managed succession. China does not need a liberal or a chaotic nationalist leader, but rather a predictable authoritarian technocrat or security official capable of keeping the country stable, controlling the nuclear arsenal, and continuing the reorientation of the Russian economy toward China.

— How will China react if Russia loses the war and is weakened? Is Chinese expansion into the Far East possible?

— China will not come to Russia’s rescue out of friendship. It will take advantage of Russia’s weakness: it will demand even greater discounts on oil and gas, as well as access to deposits, ports, transportation infrastructure, the Arctic, and strategic enterprises. Russia will become not so much an ally of China as its raw materials, technological, and political appendage. Even today, China is gaining the ability to dictate terms to Moscow even on such fundamental projects as the “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline.

Direct military annexation of the Far East is unlikely as long as Russia retains centralized authority and nuclear weapons. Furthermore, the state border between the two countries has been formally settled. However, economic expansion is already a reality and far more advantageous for Beijing: control over resources, long-term concessions, land leases, Chinese infrastructure, and the dependence of local regions on trade with China.

If Russia were to begin to disintegrate, China could establish a de facto zone of influence in the Far East under the guise of protecting the border, citizens, businesses, and transportation routes. Therefore, the most likely scenario is not a Chinese occupation of Russian territory, but its gradual economic and political absorption without a single shot being fired.

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