"Lukashenko Is Well Aware Of That."

The AFU can easily reach Belarusian refineries.

Russia is actively trying to draw Belarus into a direct war against Ukraine, but Minsk does not demonstrate readiness for a full-scale offensive. Ukraine has strengthened its border defenses, and experts predict only possible local provocations, Ukrainian media outlet nfront.org.ua writes.

What's happening on the border now

The threat remains, said a serviceman of the AFU TrO Force Alexander Musienko. On May 18, Moscow and Minsk began joint nuclear exercises, and Belarus closed access to 19 forests along its borders with Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania. Airborne activity continues and repeater antennas are being installed to improve air attacks. Military infrastructure continues to be developed.

Ukraine has responded with engineering barriers, mines and increased patrols. "As soon as there is information about the growth of the Russian contingent or the strategic deployment of Belarusian troops, then we can talk about an immediate threat. At the moment there is no such thing," Musienko explained.

Is the attack real and what awaits Lukashenko

General Nikolai Malomuzh believes that there is no need to escalate the situation. Russia has no forces for effective actions even in the main directions, and the Belarusian army has only 50,000 servicemen. "Special forces of 8-9 thousand can go. We need to prepare for different scenarios without escalating the situation," he emphasized. According to Malomuzh, for Lukashenko, the start of the war could end not only his political but also his physical career.

Soldier Kirill Sazonov noted that the Belarusian army has no combat experience, so the losses will be significant. "Putin has a great temptation to enter from the territory of Belarus and go for Kiev, because the threat to the capital allows him to dictate any terms in the negotiations. But we have something to stop them on the border," Sazonov said.

Colonel Roman Svitan added that Ukraine could retaliate. A few strikes on the Mozyr refinery would be enough to bring Belarus' economy to a halt in 24 hours. The Naftan plant is also easily accessible by drones. Lukashenko is well aware of this.

President Vladimir Zelensky said Putin is trying to draw Lukashenko into the war through additional meetings. Russia denies the threat, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Zelensky's words "dragging out the war." The State Security Service of Ukraine has not yet recorded any troop or equipment movements near the border.

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