Good News For Ukraine

Putin is not at the negotiating table with Trump.

In the U.S.-China talks, the Ukrainian issue was probably somewhere in 4th place in terms of priorities. In 1st place, as Xi immediately publicly announced, was the issue of Taiwan. This is indeed a serious issue, as China's ambition is to complete the unification of the surrounding territories that China considers its own and where the Chinese live. But it is Taiwan that, for the United States, has for many years been the center of China's deterrence in the region.

More importantly, in American nuclear doctrine, one of the instances in which the United States would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons is if China attempted to take Taiwan by force. This provision has been enshrined since the Cold War, and it is unlikely that anyone has changed it so far. So it is no coincidence that China says that the Taiwan issue must be resolved so that it does not become the cause of a nuclear war between the two superpowers.

The second issue is trade and Trump's favorite "tariffs." There is a big haggle going on over mutual market access, and Trump is obviously hoping to bargain for relatively tolerable tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for U.S. business access to Chinese markets. That's why Trump has been bringing with him to China an entire delegation of American business elites who are ready to take over China by their own non-military means.

The third issue is, of course, the U.S. war against Iran. Trump really wanted to fly in to meet Xi the winner of this war, but there is no real "victory" in this war. To end this war, Trump will be willing to engage China in conditional security guarantees for Iran. At a minimum, to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons; at a maximum, to ensure the opening of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.

And only the fourth issue, and that in the context of the previous ones, could appear, Ukraine. The good news is that in the kind of world that the US and China can now build, there is more chance for peace in Ukraine than for war. After all, China is interested in a stable world economy, and any long wars will undermine it. And Trump also needs peace in Ukraine - at least as a political victory in the eyes of his voters. Of course, this all sounds good as a theory for now. It will be much more difficult to put all these intentions into practice, and with the implementation of real foreign policy projects, Trump, to put it mildly, does not always succeed.

But there is a second piece of good news: the United States is gradually dividing the world without Russia's participation. Even 5 years ago, Putin was very eager to sit at the negotiating table with Trump and together distribute spheres of influence, including with regard to China. But during the war in Ukraine it became obvious that the world will be divided without Putin. Although Russia itself may fall under the spheres of influence of the two great powers.

Sergei Taran, Facebook

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