Belarus's Largest Plant Will Undergo Renovations

Russia could suffer the consequences.

Russia has begun purchasing significantly less fuel from Belarus. Experts told the publication "Kommersant" how sharply exports have declined and what role the upcoming renovation of the Novopolotsk Oil Refinery plays in this.

According to a source at Kommersant, sales of Belarusian gasoline shipped by rail to Russia from July 20 to August 12 totaled 21,000 metric tons, compared to 165,000 metric tons during the period from June 22 to July 17.

A similar trend is observed for diesel fuel: sales of rail shipments during the same period fell to 8,500 metric tons, compared to 115,900 metric tons, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Mozyr and Novopolotsk refineries together produce about 3.5 million metric tons of fuel, of which more than 2 million metric tons are exported. Thus, each refinery can ship about 80,000 metric tons of fuel per month.

Meanwhile, domestic demand for automotive gasoline in Russia stands at about 40 million metric tons per year (3.3 million metric tons per month).

On the one hand, the consumer frenzy seen at the beginning of the summer has subsided. Market players, however, are hoping for the market situation to stabilize ahead of the fall peak in demand.

Energy expert Kirill Rodionov believes that the start of repairs at the Novopolotsk Refinery this fall will primarily affect consumers in the Volga region, who have relied on fuel supplies from this refinery.

According to him, this will lead to reduced fuel availability for traders and independent gas stations, since the refinery does not have its own distribution networks in Russia and a significant portion of its gasoline was sold through traders.

Experts believe that the decline in fuel volumes from Belarus could be offset by maritime shipments from India.

The publication’s sources agree that fuel shortages in Russia will continue into the fall. How the situation unfolds will depend, among other things, on the stable operation of Belarusian refineries.

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