The Kremlin Is Approaching A Pre-revolutionary Situation

Important revelations from Russian state-owned banks.

The aggressor country is losing the economic war of attrition and is heading toward a social crisis that could erupt at the most unexpected moment. This isn’t just another observation of current developments in the swamps. This is an assessment… by the chief economist of a key Russian government agency — Vneshtorgbank — Andrey Klepach. His report at an interdisciplinary forum was widely quoted in the media.

Some of the statements are indeed quite noteworthy. For example: “Let me remind you that no one expected the February Revolution either. In December 1916, Lenin wrote that ‘we won’t live to see it,’ yet he did—just a few months later.” The economist does not specify a precise timeline for the “revolution” (which is hardly possible from a scientific standpoint), but simply lists the factors leading to collapse: “The damage from Ukrainian Armed Forces strikes on our infrastructure—ports, oil and gas facilities, chemical complexes, and logistics—is mounting. The tightening of U.S. sanctions at the end of 2025 led India and China to begin cutting back on their purchases of Russian oil….”

Some of these claims are indeed tantalizing
Who is this man who has offered an “economic diagnosis” of Putin’s regime? First and foremost, it should be noted that Andrei Klepach is by no means a pro-Ukrainian figure. He appears on various sanctions lists as an accomplice of the regime, has received numerous awards from that regime, and served for a long time as deputy minister of the economy.

However, the professional biography of the 67-year-old Klepach includes an interesting story dating back to 2008 that characterizes him as an expert. At that time, Klepach prepared a forecast of the consequences of the economic crisis in Russia and presented it as honestly as possible: he calculated the decline in GDP, the currency devaluation, cuts in budget spending, and so on. Klepač’s report was never published, but the forecast itself (which, incidentally, proved accurate) caused a scandal within the ministry. The claim was that Klepač was setting up the country’s leadership. Klepač’s colleagues explained the situation as follows: “He had to choose between two options: either be a good economist or a good bureaucrat. He chose the former.”

His behavior has likely remained the same ever since. He simply drew a professional conclusion after analyzing the main scenarios for how events might unfold, taking key macroeconomic indicators into account. So far, Klepach has gotten off fairly lightly: his thesis was circulated on Friday, and by Monday he had already been fired. What the economist’s future holds remains unknown. Unlike the fate of the Russian economy, where everything is already clear.

It’s worth noting that the “demarche” by Vneshtorgbank’s chief specialist is not an isolated incident. From time to time, Russian financiers try, in one way or another, to send “warning signals” to the Kremlin. The latest example: Sberbank of Russia predicted a significant devaluation of the ruble in the coming months. Professional economists in the backwaters resemble a man with a mop trying to get the attention of the neighbors upstairs who are throwing a drunken party. Will those upstairs hear them?

The probability is practically zero. War has become a way of life for the ruling regime. The Russian Federation’s military-economic machine is not only continuing to run but is also trying to pick up speed. Yes, this is a path to inevitable catastrophe, but the aggressor certainly has a few more months left. Even when economic collapse sets in and this machine runs out of fuel, it will still be able to coast along for some time. Throughout this entire period, Ukrainians must remain as united as possible and ready to face new challenges. We see the goal and are moving toward it. Together—toward Victory. Glory to Ukraine!

Yuriy Fedorenko, Facebook

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