Kyiv May Redirect Millions Of Metric Tons Of Grain To The Baltic States

The most likely route is considered to be transit through Poland.

Ukraine is considering Baltic ports as an alternative route for grain exports, as the war has severely disrupted operations at Black Sea ports. The idea emerged amid similar moves by Russia, which, following Ukrainian strikes, began converting cargo terminals in the Baltic and Arctic regions for grain exports, according to Reuters.

The main flow of Ukrainian exports currently passes through three Danube ports. However, this route costs about $50 more per metric ton and is already leading to infrastructure overload. Before the war, about 90% of Ukrainian exports passed through Black Sea ports.

The Baltic route has the potential to handle up to 20 million metric tons of grain per year. However, transportation to the ports will increase costs by another approximately $100 per metric ton. According to estimates by the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, up to $2 billion in international aid may be required to offset the additional costs.

“The Baltic ports have the potential to handle up to 20 million metric tons of grain,” the Ukrainian ministry said in a statement.

Logistics remain a challenge. Ukraine has no access to the Baltic Sea, so transit through Poland is considered the most likely route. This route was already used in 2022–2023 and sparked large-scale protests by Polish farmers, who feared competition from cheaper Ukrainian grain.

Ukraine is currently shipping grain through Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia, though the volumes are small. In the first half of September, approximately 340,000 metric tons were shipped via these routes. By mid-month, 278 grain cars were being sent to Eastern Europe daily, of which only 65 were bound for Poland.

Kyiv is now looking for ways to increase these volumes and reduce its dependence on routes that have proven vulnerable due to the war.

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