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The People Are Ready to Rule

16
The People Are Ready to Rule

Belarus has all the conditions for a change of power.

The events after 9 August 2020 have become a turning point in the modern history of Belarus. They have irrevocably changed the country. It is high time to sum up the first results of these events, the most important ones. How is this year so fundamentally different from the others?

The differences are fundamental. Today we observe many things that we did not see before.

In one phrase, today Belarus has almost everything to continue existing and even to start developing normally after the inevitable resignation of the previous, outmoded authorities.

It is worthwhile to consider this question in details, as the previous government was outmoded both in the "distant past" and in 2010. What is the difference? However, back then, for example, there were no such clear, more intelligent and effective alternatives. No, there have always been intelligent and forward-thinking people in the opposition, but they missed such organisation and self-organisation. Yes, there were plans for change, but the implementation of those plans was questionable. The old 'power vertical'? Today, everyone can see the incompetence of the old bureaucracy. New, "people's officials". Who are they? They were invisible before. But today they are visible. Above all, today it is more or less clear where one can find them if necessary. Including the ranks of the old "vertical power structure". It is now clear that there are still reasonable professionals. The system has only made them incompetent (as it does to everything that falls on its orbit).

Furthermore, people have taken to a new level of self-organisation. Alternatives to the regime have been created; they can function perfectly well and are even recognised almost everywhere in the world. There were none before. However, people were waiting for someone to do everything for them and bring people to a "bright tomorrow". Today, ordinary people - many of them - are ready to take action themselves. It will remain, even if the previous government stays in its residences for a while. The people will not turn into slaves, no matter how hard the regime tries.

Nor has there been complete international isolation of the regime, multiplied by a policy of self-isolation. There were sanctions. They were rather formal than real. Perhaps, this is why the authorities do not see the scale of the changes, believing that nothing has changed for them in the international arena. They will criticize us for a while and then will give money again. However, it is unlikely to happen. Isolation has so far been predominantly political, but economic isolation has also begun, although it is still in its early stage. Foreign companies have begun to announce their intentions to leave the country. Some, I believe, will leave without any statements. Yes, there are few of them yet, but it is just the beginning. No new good investors will come to the country under this regime. In short, the direction in which the situation will develop along this "vector" is already clear.

These are only European sanctions. The US has also been increasing sanctions against the regime and passing the Belarus Democracy Act, which makes the adoption of new sanctions inevitable. It has already happened before, but not on such a scale.

The regime has completely and irrevocably ruined its international image. Not so long ago, it introduced itself as a "security donor" in Europe and even in the world. Quite recently, some believed them - even prominent foreign politicians. It is all the thing of the past. There is no stability, no security. Now the regime is illegitimate. The Olympic movement has even abandoned it. Before, a country lost the right to participate in events. Now only the dictator and his "family" lost the right. Such a thing had never happened before. It was impossible even to imagine it.

The Belarusian Foreign Ministry used to smooth over the negativity in relations between Minsk and the West. Now the Foreign Ministry, headed by Makei, only contributes to the aggravation of relations, which one could never see before.

The regime may not have been able to destroy the economy completely yet, but it is already close to it. It is trying hard, anyway. So the new government will have to build a new economy practically from scratch. After all, the old regime cannot build a new, modern economy, and it is not even trying to.

The "people in the system" began to reflect on their future and prospects - those who have brains, of course. There are many of them. That never happened before. Everything ended quickly. The "people in the system" did not even have time to jump out of skin. Now they have time. The representatives of the current regime are already able to assess the prospects. I mean who is going to prison and what they should do to avoid that prospect. Or who can simply retire, and who can continue to work for the new, really de facto, European Belarus. For now, it is more North Korean, not European.

Thus, the new system has appeared and is becoming more functional and acknowledged in the world; people are ready for changes. Moreover, many are ready to act, even despite repressions. The capacity of the old system is failing, and so is its legitimacy. The laws, for example, have ceased to work officially - "sometimes there is no time for laws", "stability" has gone, the economy is decaying, the investment attractiveness has become sharply negative, and so on. That is, the old system is collapsing, although the riot police are still standing. Things cannot go on as they were.

The main reason is the increasing incompetence of the previous government. The fact that there is someone to replace comes next, although it is also very important. The regime is fighting only against new, alternative structures and its people, not against its degradation and incompetence. That is why the regime is doomed. One can imprison the members of the Coordination Council, although it is unlikely that all of them. However, what should the authorities do to their lack of viability? Especially when no plans exist.

Putin is the only way out. However, he seems to be increasingly hesitant. It is silly to fall under international sanctions for the support of the "bloody dictator". After all, Putin is not a fan of him. It would be wiser to promote new elections and then agree with Babaryka or someone else. All the alternative candidates - from the opposition or a sane part of the 'vertical' will pursue a reasonable policy. Unlike the man with the 'blue fingers', they are not Russia hawks yet and are capable of agreeing. So far, Putin has supported Lukashenka, at least in words. He has his vision of the "'brotherhood of dictators'". It is not for me to comment on it, I don't understand it, neither do Navalny's "poisoned pants", by the way. So there is some uncertainty on this "vector" so far.

In any case, "the people are the source of power". They are already aware of this little by little, ready for change, ready to work for it, and it seems to be the main outcome of the year. The paternalism is over on both sides. The government is no longer ready to provide "a glass of vodka and bacon crisp" at an acceptable level, while the people have already turned away from the government and are ready to feed themselves. Although they used to do it, let no one bother them. Now the people want the authorities to stop bothering and stealing from them, and started showing respect to them.

Yury Pshennik, Nashe Mneniye

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