Kremlin Won't Forgive: Putin's Plan Involves Removal of Lukashenka from Power Levers

Several major events have occurred in recent days.

Several events have occurred recently that have raised questions about the current nature of relations between Moscow and Minsk.

The Komsomolskaya Pravda office in Belarus was closed, and journalist Gennady Mozheiko was detained. Vladimir Putin did not come to Minsk for the summit of the EAEU and CIS leaders, despite the announcement.

Sergey Lavrov came to the meeting of the Council of CIS Foreign Ministers, but he had no meeting with Aliaksandr Lukashenka.

The Kommersant newspaper writes the package of roadmaps for deeper integration may not be signed on November 4.

Russian media published classified data from a survey showing that a majority of Belarusians are against Lukashenka's regime.

Following this, propagandists on Belarusian television made some insulting remarks about Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Arseny Sivitsky, Director of the Centre for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies, commented to udf that relations between the Belarusian and Russian authorities were deteriorating.

"Despite the visible absence of tension, the parties are moving towards a crisis in bilateral relations. This is largely because the Kremlin sees the political crisis in Belarus as a suitable condition to interfere in the internal affairs of the country and impose certain parameters of the transit of power through constitutional reform on the Belarusian leadership. It involves removing Lukashenka from the levers of power to more effective promotion Russian interests in Belarus," said Sivitsky.

In his opinion, the Kremlin is making various efforts to implement its agenda. Among other things, it continues to put economic pressure on Belarus. It does not satisfy Minsk's requests for regular loans. Thus, Putin promised in September only 630-640 million dollars by the end of 2022 instead of the 3 billion dollars requested by Minsk.

The issue of compensation for the "tax manoeuvre" in the Russian oil sector and the new gas contract for 2022 (although it was previously agreed to keep the current price) is also up in the air.

"The new gas contract may become another point of tension. The pricing formula for Belarus may change. Minsk is not ready to accept such conditions. The possible postponement of the road map for deeper economic integration may relate to this," believes Sivitsky.

He stressed:

"The very fact that Putin is cancelling his visits and face-to-face meetings with Lukashenka is an instrument of pressure. The Kremlin is demonstrating if not a change in its position, then at least diminishing political support".