"Karaeu and Vakulchyk Were in the Eyes of Lukashenka a Greater Threat Than the Army"

How does the split of the elites in Belarus occur?

The Telegram channel "Reflection and Reaction" wrote about how the split of Lukashenka's entourage is taking place and what conclusions can be drawn from these processes:

- In any such revolutions, the key point is the split of the elites. It is pointless to take buildings without a split. The soldier obeys the commander, and the commander obeys the commander-in-chief. The fact that someone has occupied a building can symbolically tilt the balance, but only if the bowl is swinging.

Belarus's specificity was that the elites, as such, i.e. the people who ruled the state, were largely isolated from society. They boiled in their own clique and had a little intersection with the outside world. Perhaps, only representatives of the economic bloc were more or less seen - they were the main hopes, but they were removed from the government even before the elections.

But this does not mean that the rest were (and are) all for the regime. But nobody knew how things really were.

In reality, from a retrospective point of view, the situation turned out to be interesting. The regime did not split; society could expect the opposite but could not know and predict this.

Makei neatly hinted at this in his pre-election interview with tut.by. They did not understand him then. In general, people expected that "well, this should certainly cause a split from any crack." And there were no cracks; there was fear because the elite did not fully trust themselves.

They expected the army to take over. But it turned out that the Special Forces, without regard to the nuances of legislation, from the very first days, shot to death at people on command from above. And Karaeu and Vakulchyk were removed from their posts, i.e., in the eyes of Lukashenka, they were a greater threat than the army. All actions were conditioned by the assumption "something isomething is happening there s happening there because always in all cases." It happened there but in the wrong direction.

The realization started when contacts began to be built. When the headquarters of former security officials and officials appeared, the former established ties with the current ones. And only then the contours of the real picture began to appear, but this did not happen just in August-September.

In fact, no one understood the task of organizing this split artificially if it does not appear naturally, through the management of agents loyal to the protest; there was no connection with these people. Now this task is understood by the leaders of the protest.